NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	5.5 [727]		MVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): +12.7%
Detroit Pistons	93		Comeback	1.3 [742]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): -19.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	14	58%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	7	86%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	2	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
RJ Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Evan Turner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.05	11	50%	0.08	5	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Jae Crowder	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	46%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Tyler Zeller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.09	0.02	0.01	14	45%	0.01	4	-0.09	10	90%	0.07

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Bullock	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	0.04	14	52%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.05	11	55%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	21	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	10	40%	-0.08
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	0.06	14	50%	-0.07	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19	-0.19	-0.20	-0.03	-0.05	13	23%	-0.07	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	28.2	16.5	22.3	2.5	45.3	140.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +41.1%

BOS +7.5%

DET -5.5%

BOS +6.3%

BOS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	14.9	14.8	14.9	102.1	95.9	105.1
season	13.9	15.0		104.5	104.9
opponent	15.1	15.0		105.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.9	13.1	15.8	17.3	14.9
DET	13.8	15.2	17.0	13.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	71	70	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-5	16	14.9	15.0	-0.18	15.5	12.8	2.73
Avery Bradley	66	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-7	20	14.4	15.9	-1.51	14.1	16.2	-2.02
Isaiah Thomas	65	66	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	-3	12	15.5	13.7	1.73	15.0	14.3	0.68
Amir Johnson	56	57	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	-3	12	15.2	14.5	0.77	14.5	15.2	-0.75
Tyler Zeller	31	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	-1	8	13.7	15.5	-1.81	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Jared Sullinger	41	37	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	-3	12	15.2	14.7	0.46	17.8	12.9	4.94
Evan Turner	46	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.31	-6	12	-18	15.5	14.4	1.04	13.9	15.6	-1.69
Kelly Olynyk	50	49	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	12	-18	15.3	14.4	0.89	14.6	15.0	-0.47
Jonas Jerebko	25	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.23	-10	16	-26	14.1	15.2	-1.11	11.6	15.9	-4.34
RJ Hunter	34	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	12	-18	14.4	15.2	-0.85	15.5	14.4	1.19

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Bullock	3	4	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	9.3	15.0	-5.62	12.5	15.0	-2.51
Aron Baynes	21	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-6	6	16.2	14.4	1.86	16.7	14.4	2.31
Anthony Tolliver	30	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-11	16	16.9	13.8	3.11	15.3	14.7	0.52
Stanley Johnson	52	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-9	12	14.6	15.0	-0.40	15.3	14.5	0.85
Steve Blake	44	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-9	12	13.6	15.8	-2.14	14.0	15.7	-1.65
Reggie Jackson	54	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-4	2	15.6	13.8	1.74	15.5	14.1	1.42
Marcus Morris	74	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-5	4	15.2	13.4	1.82	14.8	15.4	-0.67
Ersan Ilyasova	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	12	-30	13.9	16.2	-2.32	14.4	15.7	-1.24
Andre Drummond	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	5	-16	14.5	15.7	-1.22	14.5	16.3	-1.83
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.21	-9	3	-12	14.5	15.5	-0.94	15.2	14.2	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 104, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.36,0.49,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.18,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.8%
MIA 95, DAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0	94.6%
NJN 94, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%