NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	5.2 [790]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +6.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	96		Comeback	1.0 [284]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -11.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	8	76%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.02	20	52%	0.10	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	16	55%	0.10	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	5	46%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.05	18	45%	0.03	4	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.12	-0.04	0.05	21	60%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.06	6	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	12	54%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	6	17%	-0.06	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	12	25%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	23	44%	-0.00	6	-0.11	13	54%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	2.8	27.4	16.7	26.2	2.8	29.2	135.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +43.5%

CHI +3.7%

CHI +4.6%

OKC -2.6%

CHI +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	OKC	NBA	CHI	OKC	NBA
this game	14.8	13.8	14.9	105.0	95.0	105.1
season	14.8	14.4		103.7	111.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		104.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	14.3	13.8	17.3	14.8
OKC	14.2	13.4	14.4	13.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	32	32	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.03	20	-11	31	13.5	15.5	-1.96	16.9	12.4	4.45
Derrick Rose	59	61	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.22	10	-1	11	15.1	14.4	0.66	14.9	12.2	2.62
Jimmy Butler	90	90	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	5	-1	15.0	12.9	2.14	13.7	15.3	-1.62
Pau Gasol	77	78	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.28	3	6	-3	15.3	13.3	2.04	13.7	14.2	-0.44
Taj Gibson	70	71	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.01	11	-2	13	15.0	14.3	0.71	14.1	13.2	0.85
Doug McDermott	49	48	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	6	-3	15.3	14.4	0.93	13.2	14.4	-1.11
Bobby Portis	44	44	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	6	-3	14.1	15.4	-1.24	12.8	14.6	-1.76
Aaron Brooks	22	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	5	-1	12.8	15.4	-2.64	13.1	14.1	-0.93
Kirk Hinrich	38	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	10	-11	14.9	14.8	0.06	13.1	14.2	-1.05
Tony Snell	19	22	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.08	-12	21	-33	15.2	14.7	0.47	11.9	14.4	-2.46

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Waiters	43	41	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.09	9	-18	27	12.0	15.2	-3.11	14.6	15.0	-0.46
Nick Collison	24	22	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-14	19	13.5	13.9	-0.38	14.8	14.8	-0.02
Enes Kanter	57	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-14	19	13.6	14.2	-0.62	14.5	15.3	-0.83
Anthony Morrow	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-9	9	13.1	14.4	-1.27	14.9	14.8	0.11
D.J. Augustin	32	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	4	-17	14.4	13.6	0.89	12.0	16.0	-3.94
Andre Roberson	40	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	3	-15	15.0	13.0	1.98	14.9	14.8	0.12
Russell Westbrook	80	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-5	1	14.0	13.0	1.05	15.4	12.5	2.84
Kevin Durant	89	89	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-5	1	13.7	15.2	-1.51	15.0	13.5	1.55
Serge Ibaka	71	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-2	-5	14.1	13.2	0.90	15.5	13.2	2.29
Steven Adams	25	25	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.07	-24	15	-39	15.6	13.3	2.30	14.9	14.8	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0	94.3%
TOR 94, HOU 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.3%
NJN 92, BOS 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%