NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	5.5 [726]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +19.1%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	1.0 [232]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -14.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.06	0.01	13	70%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	14	68%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.00	13	67%	0.23	2	-0.10	7	100%	0.05
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	9	70%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	9	52%	0.08	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	9	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0,0.02,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.17	-0.03	0.07	26	59%	0.08	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	12	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	8	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	16	41%	-0.10	3	-0.05	7	71%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	28.6	15.5	23.8	2.7	48.1	143.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +73.0%

DEN +0.8%

TOR -3.8%

TOR -22.4%

DEN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	TOR	NBA	DEN	TOR	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	14.9	114.0	111.7	105.1
season	14.9	16.1		104.3	107.2
opponent	14.8	14.9		104.6	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	15.4	19.1	14.9	16.2
TOR	15.9	14.6	12.2	15.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	70	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	-1	3	16.2	16.2	0.04	14.2	15.6	-1.35
Will Barton	57	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.56	-6	7	-13	16.6	15.6	0.92	15.3	13.4	1.83
Randy Foye	72	71	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.42	-2	3	-5	16.2	16.2	0.02	14.1	16.3	-2.25
Emmanuel Mudiay	62	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-11	23	15.7	17.3	-1.63	14.5	14.8	-0.22
Jameer Nelson	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.51	-8	9	-17	16.8	15.4	1.46	15.4	13.6	1.87
Darrell Arthur	57	55	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.36	-3	4	-7	14.9	18.2	-3.34	14.0	15.5	-1.46
Mike Miller	21	23	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.03	7	-6	13	16.2	16.2	-0.02	16.3	14.1	2.25
Nikola Jokic	26	26	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.08	3	-2	5	16.9	15.9	0.94	15.3	14.4	0.92
Joffrey Lauvergne	48	49	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	1	-1	16.9	15.4	1.52	13.8	15.4	-1.61

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	8	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	1	-3	16.6	14.4	2.21	16.2	16.2	0.05
Lucas Nogueira	29	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-4	7	15.3	14.3	0.97	18.2	15.3	2.93
Terrence Ross	31	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-3	5	15.2	14.3	0.92	17.3	15.7	1.58
Patrick Patterson	41	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.22	3	-4	7	14.1	15.0	-0.86	18.0	14.8	3.24
Luis Scola	44	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.39	8	-9	17	14.7	14.5	0.23	15.0	17.2	-2.20
Cory Joseph	54	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.51	8	-9	17	15.5	13.4	2.01	16.1	16.3	-0.17
Bismack Biyombo	50	51	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.11	-17	16	-33	13.8	15.6	-1.81	16.2	16.2	-0.06
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-2	3	14.7	14.3	0.43	16.1	16.5	-0.34
Kyle Lowry	74	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	2	-5	14.0	16.7	-2.66	15.8	17.6	-1.78
DeMarre Carroll	64	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	7	-15	14.5	14.9	-0.43	15.0	18.7	-3.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.28,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 107, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0	94.4%
MIA 100, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	94.3%
BKN 101, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.07,0,0	93.7%