NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	107		Excitement	5.2 [806]		MVP	Kyle Singler (DET): +18.8%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.2 [237]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -14.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Singler	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.01	-0.02	10	82%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	73%	0.10	3	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Brandon Jennings	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.06	0.01	9	68%	0.15	7	-0.15	4	75%	0.00
Josh Harrellson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.03	9	62%	0.14	5	-0.18	8	100%	0.04
Josh Smith	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.03	-0.03	21	34%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.01	0.04	16	66%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	57%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	10	60%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	61%	0.07	6	-0.11	8	62%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	8	56%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	11	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	7	37%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	30.2	16.7	25.3	2.0	36.0	136.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +45.0%

DET +1.5%

DET +17.6%

MIA -13.3%

MIA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.2	15.1	109.2	99.0	105.2
season	15.0	15.6		104.7	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.8	14.4	15.1	17.4	15.2
MIA	13.3	17.6	14.9	11.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	75	76	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	-1	12	15.3	14.8	0.56	14.2	14.2	-0.07
Brandon Jennings	88	89	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	7	-4	15.5	12.7	2.80	14.1	15.0	-0.91
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	41	40	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.04	13	-3	16	14.0	16.1	-2.00	15.1	13.5	1.57
Rodney Stuckey	67	67	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	6	-2	15.6	14.5	1.07	13.7	15.1	-1.40
Kyle Singler	55	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	1	8	15.1	15.3	-0.24	15.1	13.2	1.92
Josh Smith	80	81	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	7	-4	15.1	15.7	-0.62	14.0	14.9	-0.93
Andre Drummond	46	47	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.28	-2	12	-14	15.7	14.8	0.83	13.2	15.0	-1.81
Jonas Jerebko	19	19	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	6	-2	15.7	15.1	0.65	15.8	13.8	2.07
Josh Harrellson	19	19	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.03	5	5	0	13.9	15.5	-1.64	13.1	14.4	-1.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	31	31	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-14	18	14.2	14.2	-0.02	16.1	14.8	1.29
Ray Allen	61	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-11	12	13.2	15.8	-2.67	15.6	14.6	0.95
Rashard Lewis	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-3	-4	13.7	14.4	-0.65	14.7	15.4	-0.70
Michael Beasley	61	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-13	16	14.0	14.5	-0.55	15.8	14.2	1.66
Norris Cole	55	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-9	8	13.5	15.0	-1.56	15.3	15.1	0.22
James Jones	23	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	1	-12	15.6	13.7	1.82	14.0	15.6	-1.61
Shane Battier	33	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	0	-10	14.7	13.9	0.83	14.2	15.7	-1.48
LeBron James	75	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-4	-2	14.3	13.9	0.40	15.3	14.9	0.45
Mario Chalmers	57	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-1	-8	15.4	12.5	2.81	15.2	15.2	0.06
Chris Bosh	67	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.10	-14	4	-18	14.2	14.2	0.02	14.8	16.1	-1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 100, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.05,0	94.6%
DET 76, PHI 66	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.02,0,0	94.4%
DEN 106, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.28,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.04,0	94.4%