NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	96		Excitement	6.0 [627]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +41.0%
Atlanta Hawks	86		Comeback	18.0 [40]		LVP	DeMarre Carroll (TOR): -12.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.41	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.09,0.03,0.14,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.16	0.25	-0.00	17	67%	0.49	2	-0.08	12	92%	0.06
Cory Joseph	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.03	10	45%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	7	43%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	4	70%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Luis Scola	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	16	49%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	8	28%	-0.06	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	9	37%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	9	55%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	9	63%	0.10	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	12	54%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	16	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.04
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	16	39%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	4	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	27.3	15.6	26.3	2.7	30.2	127.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +58.4%

ATL -1.4%

ATL -2.3%

ATL -3.7%

ATL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	14.9	101.1	93.5	105.1
season	16.1	14.2		107.2	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.8		100.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.3	16.3	17.4	11.8	15.3
ATL	15.6	14.3	16.0	15.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucas Nogueira	35	35	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.20	22	-12	34	11.5	17.6	-6.14	15.9	15.2	0.68
Patrick Patterson	46	45	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.23	18	-8	26	14.0	16.6	-2.55	16.1	14.9	1.26
Cory Joseph	67	65	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-3	16	14.7	16.9	-2.26	15.6	15.3	0.29
Kyle Lowry	75	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	0	10	15.2	15.7	-0.52	14.9	17.9	-3.03
DeMar DeRozan	70	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.11	9	1	8	15.6	14.6	1.05	15.7	15.0	0.71
Terrence Ross	48	46	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	11	-12	15.1	15.6	-0.55	16.3	14.7	1.63
Bismack Biyombo	51	50	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	14	-18	17.3	13.0	4.27	14.9	16.2	-1.29
Luis Scola	38	34	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	19	-28	17.6	13.8	3.78	15.5	15.5	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	45	44	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.02	-8	18	-26	16.6	14.2	2.36	14.8	16.1	-1.24

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Patterson	9	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-9	8	19.4	15.0	4.41	16.1	15.2	0.85
Mike Muscala	33	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.12	-5	-5	0	17.1	14.5	2.58	15.0	15.5	-0.53
Dennis Schroder	26	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	-6	2	15.9	15.3	0.58	16.7	14.8	1.91
Mike Scott	23	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-11	12	14.5	15.8	-1.26	15.9	15.2	0.70
Thabo Sefolosha	66	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-9	8	15.5	15.3	0.28	15.5	15.0	0.55
Kyle Korver	60	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-6	2	14.7	16.8	-2.06	15.2	15.6	-0.39
Paul Millsap	64	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-3	-4	15.7	15.0	0.67	15.7	14.5	1.14
Jeff Teague	66	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-4	-2	15.3	15.9	-0.58	14.8	16.7	-1.91
Al Horford	64	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	-1	-8	14.7	17.1	-2.36	15.0	16.1	-1.12
Kent Bazemore	49	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.11	-14	4	-18	15.5	15.4	0.09	15.1	15.6	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.65,0.64,0.45,0.22,0.14,0.04,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 92, BOS 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.71,0.47,0.34,0.15,0.07,0.06,0,0	93.0%
DET 112, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.72,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.03,0	92.1%
MIN 113, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.4,0.46,0.16,0.02,0,0	92.0%