NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	9.7 [84]		MVP	Thaddeus Young (BKN): +15.5%
Brooklyn Nets	87		Comeback	5.1 [123]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -51.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stanley Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.00	10	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.2,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	17	48%	0.06	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	70%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,0.05,0.02	-0.08	0.12	0.03	19	41%	0.15	3	-0.13	11	18%	-0.16
Marcus Morris	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	10	35%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	9	44%	-0.05	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	6	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.51	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.51	-0.23	-0.30	-0.02	20	20%	-0.44	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	12	73%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.02	7	80%	0.24	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.11	0.11	-0.06	0.18	0.00	9	55%	0.24	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.05
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	10	45%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sergey Karasev	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.13	-0.02	18	37%	0.02	3	-0.24	5	60%	-0.11
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26	-0.26	-0.02	-0.24	0.00	10	54%	-0.14	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	23.5	15.4	25.6	2.6	34.2	129.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BKN +57.0%

BKN +19.9%

BKN +4.4%

DET -26.5%

DET -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BKN	NBA	DET	BKN	NBA
this game	14.4	14.1	14.9	81.4	87.0	105.1
season	15.0	15.0		104.9	101.9
opponent	14.8	15.1		109.3	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.2	13.2	14.2	14.1	14.4
BKN	13.8	14.5	14.1	14.1	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	57	55	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-3	2	14.1	14.8	-0.73	13.9	14.4	-0.46
Steve Blake	38	37	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.06	-1	-3	2	14.0	14.6	-0.61	13.6	14.4	-0.72
Aron Baynes	25	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	3	-10	14.0	14.5	-0.49	14.5	14.0	0.58
Ersan Ilyasova	55	55	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.39	6	-10	16	14.3	14.6	-0.34	14.4	13.8	0.59
Anthony Tolliver	47	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	6	-16	14.6	14.3	0.34	13.8	14.4	-0.59
Andre Drummond	77	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-7	10	14.5	14.0	0.49	14.0	14.5	-0.58
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.36	0	-4	4	14.8	13.6	1.19	13.7	15.0	-1.24
Reggie Jackson	64	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.44	-3	-1	-2	14.6	14.0	0.61	14.4	13.6	0.72
Marcus Morris	76	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.46	-7	3	-10	14.3	14.7	-0.38	14.6	12.6	2.00

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	49	49	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.45	13	-9	22	14.7	13.5	1.24	14.7	14.1	0.58
Joe Johnson	81	84	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.42	10	-6	16	14.0	14.5	-0.53	14.2	15.6	-1.39
Thaddeus Young	64	64	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	1	2	14.6	13.2	1.33	14.4	14.4	0.03
Jarrett Jack	56	56	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.47	0	4	-4	13.5	14.9	-1.36	14.8	13.9	0.87
Brook Lopez	73	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.55	-4	8	-12	14.6	12.7	1.96	14.3	14.8	-0.55
Thomas Robinson	27	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.16	8	-4	12	12.7	14.6	-1.96	14.8	14.3	0.55
Shane Larkin	46	47	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.10	4	0	4	14.3	13.9	0.42	13.6	15.1	-1.43
Bojan Bogdanovic	43	45	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.11	4	0	4	14.0	14.1	-0.09	15.0	13.9	1.13
Andrea Bargnani	4	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	6	-8	17.7	13.9	3.80	20.5	14.2	6.34
Sergey Karasev	12	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	9	-14	13.9	14.1	-0.21	12.4	14.7	-2.32
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	45	46	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.02	-11	15	-26	13.2	14.8	-1.64	14.3	14.5	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.3,0.46,0.54,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, CLE 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.73,0.69,0.78,0.68,0.42,1	92.2%
NOK 88, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.42,1	91.1%
LAL 101, DEN 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.36,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.42,1	90.0%