NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	88		Excitement	7.7 [304]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +53.9%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	5.8 [599]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -28.8%

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	79%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Tyson Chandler	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	6	62%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	9	72%	0.18	6	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	15	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Chris Paul	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	14	53%	0.14	4	-0.24	10	90%	0.07
Rasual Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.09	0.10	-0.19	0.00	8	75%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.54	0.54	0.12	0.41	-0.01	10	75%	0.54	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.13	-0.01	12	54%	0.21	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.00	20	67%	0.25	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.06
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	11	40%	-0.04	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.29	-0.29	-0.06	-0.23	-0.00	8	37%	-0.08	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	28.5	16.3	24.5	2.7	34.0	131.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +62.3%

NOK -17.3%

NOK -11.1%

SAS +18.7%

NOK -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOK	SAS	NBA	NOK	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	15.4	97.8	102.2	104.5
season	16.0	16.2		102.8	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		98.9	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOK	14.0	12.6	16.4	18.8	15.3
SAS	15.4	19.6	15.5	16.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	13	12	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.00	2	-6	8	12.7	15.8	-3.06	21.3	16.0	5.36
Desmond Mason	53	53	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.09	-3	-1	-2	15.8	14.5	1.31	15.6	18.2	-2.59
Marc Jackson	7	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-3	2	17.4	15.1	2.30	15.5	16.8	-1.30
Jannero Pargo	48	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-4	4	14.8	15.9	-1.16	17.3	15.9	1.40
Devin Brown	58	57	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-4	4	14.8	16.2	-1.41	17.5	15.4	2.09
Tyson Chandler	71	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-4	4	15.3	15.3	-0.01	15.9	19.9	-4.00
David West	76	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	-1	-2	14.8	17.9	-3.02	17.3	13.5	3.87
Chris Paul	74	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.36	-8	4	-12	16.1	11.9	4.18	15.7	21.4	-5.70
Rasual Butler	50	50	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.42	-7	3	-10	15.8	14.6	1.19	17.1	16.2	0.88

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	33	31	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.37	9	-5	14	15.2	17.5	-2.28	16.5	14.7	1.79
Bruce Bowen	63	64	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-10	24	16.2	17.9	-1.66	15.7	14.5	1.19
Michael Finley	50	49	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	2	0	16.7	16.6	0.12	16.5	13.9	2.63
Tim Duncan	68	70	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.35	1	3	-2	16.8	16.3	0.49	15.8	13.6	2.14
Brent Barry	48	49	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.34	-1	5	-6	18.9	14.2	4.64	15.7	14.9	0.84
Manu Ginobili	51	50	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	-2	8	15.1	18.7	-3.58	15.5	15.1	0.34
Tony Parker	54	56	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	3	-2	16.9	16.4	0.45	14.6	16.5	-1.86
Matt Bonner	26	25	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	15.3	17.2	-1.94	14.0	15.8	-1.76
Fabricio Oberto	23	22	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	9	-14	18.9	15.9	2.93	13.1	16.0	-2.88
Beno Udrih	10	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	8	-12	17.5	16.6	0.91	12.4	15.7	-3.28
Francisco Elson	24	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.01	-3	7	-10	17.2	16.5	0.65	14.1	15.7	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.67,0.42,1	91.9%
ATL 95, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.41,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	91.3%
DET 83, BKN 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.3,0.46,0.54,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.27,1	91.1%