NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	95		Excitement	8.3 [188]		MVP	John Salmons (MIL): +64.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	98		Comeback	8.3 [271]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -20.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12	0.13	-0.01	-0.01	16	66%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.00	5	86%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.06
Joe Johnson	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.22,0.35,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	25	53%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	69%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	47%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	9	45%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.45,0.64	0.64	0.21	0.43	-0.01	19	74%	0.67	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.16
Carlos Delfino	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.11	0.01	16	61%	0.24	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.09	0.09	0.15	-0.05	0.01	9	90%	0.15	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	7	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.01	-0.19	0.01	11	37%	-0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	27.3	17.5	22.8	2.0	30.2	124.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -29.4%

MIL +45.5%

MIL +50.7%

ATL -15.7%

ATL -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	17.7	17.0	15.3	114.5	118.1	106.0
season	16.0	15.5		109.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		101.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.8	16.4	18.8	17.9	17.7
MIL	19.2	17.0	16.4	15.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	40	40	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.09	9	-12	21	18.9	16.6	2.25	17.5	16.5	1.08
Joe Smith	26	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-3	3	16.1	18.5	-2.38	17.6	16.7	0.93
Maurice Evans	29	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-2	1	15.9	18.7	-2.74	16.4	17.3	-0.87
Zaza Pachulia	20	19	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	5	-13	16.4	18.1	-1.66	15.5	17.4	-1.96
Al Horford	63	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.42	5	-8	13	18.1	16.4	1.66	17.4	15.5	1.96
Josh Smith	56	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.37	-3	0	-3	18.7	15.6	3.08	16.7	17.6	-0.93
Jamal Crawford	62	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.47	-3	0	-3	16.9	20.1	-3.19	16.8	17.7	-0.94
Joe Johnson	65	64	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.35	-7	4	-11	18.3	15.5	2.82	17.0	16.9	0.12
Marvin Williams	54	52	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	4	-11	17.7	17.7	0.09	17.1	16.8	0.34

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	56	54	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-4	11	16.6	17.8	-1.17	16.8	19.3	-2.51
John Salmons	72	72	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.36	8	-5	13	16.9	17.8	-0.96	17.7	17.6	0.09
Carlos Delfino	74	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.43	0	3	-3	17.1	16.4	0.61	18.2	13.6	4.66
Jerry Stackhouse	39	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	-4	11	16.5	17.4	-0.94	17.2	18.1	-0.91
Andrew Bogut	47	48	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	0	3	18.0	15.7	2.28	17.8	17.5	0.29
Luc Mbah a Moute	39	39	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.27	-4	7	-11	18.1	16.0	2.15	18.6	16.9	1.66
Kurt Thomas	36	35	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	3	-3	15.7	18.0	-2.28	17.5	17.8	-0.29
Ersan Ilyasova	25	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	5	-7	16.2	17.3	-1.18	15.6	18.6	-3.08
Brandon Jennings	27	29	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	7	-11	17.8	16.6	1.17	19.3	16.8	2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.41,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 88, SAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.42,1	91.3%
PHI 113, CHH 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.61,0.45,0.57,0.42,1	91.2%
ORL 84, MEM 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.67,0.42,1	90.5%