NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	5.6 [714]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +22.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	103		Comeback	4.2 [607]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -29.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.04	0.02	13	53%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	16	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Steve Blake	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	16	44%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	15	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.10	-0.01	22	63%	0.30	3	-0.07	10	100%	0.06
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.02	6	64%	0.12	1	-0.00	10	80%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	8	87%	0.10	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	55%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.02	-0.01	13	31%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.29,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.25	-0.07	-0.02	14	42%	-0.07	11	-0.23	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	28.4	15.4	24.8	2.0	30.0	129.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +38.0%

OKC +8.9%

OKC +19.8%

DET -17.9%

OKC +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	14.9	91.6	108.4	105.1
season	15.0	14.4		104.9	111.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		104.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.0	16.7	17.0	15.8	15.8
OKC	14.2	14.7	13.0	16.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	43	44	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-20	24	15.8	15.9	-0.07	13.8	15.1	-1.28
Andre Drummond	65	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-11	6	15.3	17.0	-1.76	14.6	14.3	0.21
Stanley Johnson	32	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-15	14	15.4	16.0	-0.59	14.2	14.6	-0.43
Anthony Tolliver	37	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-15	14	16.2	15.6	0.67	14.5	14.5	0.05
Ersan Ilyasova	58	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.13	-15	-1	-14	15.6	16.2	-0.67	14.5	14.5	-0.05
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	80	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	-4	-8	15.8	15.7	0.12	14.5	14.5	0.02
Aron Baynes	30	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-5	-6	17.0	15.3	1.76	14.3	14.6	-0.21
Marcus Morris	78	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.07	-19	3	-22	16.0	15.2	0.80	14.6	13.9	0.66
Reggie Jackson	52	51	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.08	-20	4	-24	15.9	15.8	0.07	15.1	13.8	1.28

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Roberson	62	60	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.10	20	-4	24	13.5	16.4	-2.88	16.9	13.9	2.99
Dion Waiters	53	52	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.00	18	-2	20	14.3	14.7	-0.41	16.2	15.4	0.80
Enes Kanter	39	38	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	7	2	13.7	15.0	-1.34	15.8	15.9	-0.11
Kevin Durant	74	76	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.06	13	3	10	14.3	15.0	-0.66	15.7	16.3	-0.61
D.J. Augustin	41	38	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	7	2	16.4	13.0	3.44	15.8	15.9	-0.07
Russell Westbrook	59	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	7	2	13.4	16.3	-2.98	15.8	16.0	-0.22
Steven Adams	52	54	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.16	12	4	8	15.1	13.7	1.44	15.9	15.7	0.18
Serge Ibaka	62	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	11	-6	14.9	13.7	1.25	15.7	16.0	-0.30
Nick Collison	17	17	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	21	-26	15.5	14.3	1.27	13.6	16.3	-2.66
Anthony Morrow	16	16	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.06	-10	26	-36	15.8	14.2	1.60	14.1	16.2	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, ATL 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.29,0.45,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
SAC 80, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.98,1,1	93.0%
TOR 84, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%