NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	4.4 [951]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +13.5%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	1.0 [1298]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -11.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.16	0.00	0.05	13	72%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Gary Harris	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.00	10	68%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	12	60%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	9	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	12	20%	-0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.00	14	69%	0.18	3	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.01	-0.05	15	57%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	16	61%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	5	82%	0.10	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	14	34%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	0.8	26.5	14.7	24.1	1.8	25.0	118.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +60.1%

DEN -0.2%

DEN -10.9%

DEN -3.7%

SAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	15.4	14.9	102.1	112.4	105.1
season	14.9	15.7		104.3	109.0
opponent	14.7	14.9		97.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	14.4	13.7	14.4	14.5
SAS	15.2	16.3	15.8	14.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kostas Papanikolaou	3	2	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-14	17	12.0	14.5	-2.54	15.0	15.4	-0.39
Jameer Nelson	44	44	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.24	7	-18	25	13.9	14.9	-1.01	15.4	15.4	-0.03
Will Barton	46	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.17	0	-11	11	13.7	15.2	-1.46	14.8	15.9	-1.04
Randy Foye	35	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-6	1	14.5	14.5	-0.00	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Darrell Arthur	37	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-4	-3	14.4	14.5	-0.09	15.0	15.6	-0.57
JJ Hickson	30	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-2	-7	15.9	13.8	2.10	15.5	15.3	0.10
Nikola Jokic	66	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	-9	7	13.8	15.9	-2.10	15.3	15.5	-0.10
Danilo Gallinari	59	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-8	5	14.7	14.1	0.57	15.9	14.5	1.40
Kenneth Faried	56	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-4	-3	14.6	14.2	0.40	15.6	15.0	0.60
Gary Harris	52	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.04	-14	3	-17	14.9	14.0	0.93	15.6	15.1	0.48
Emmanuel Mudiay	52	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.06	-18	7	-25	14.9	13.9	1.01	15.4	15.4	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	55	56	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.11	22	-11	33	14.9	16.0	-1.01	14.8	14.0	0.79
Tim Duncan	54	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-4	19	15.3	15.5	-0.23	15.1	13.7	1.40
Kawhi Leonard	72	72	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	3	5	16.0	13.6	2.35	14.7	13.8	0.89
Tony Parker	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	4	3	15.4	15.3	0.16	14.6	14.1	0.55
LaMarcus Aldridge	62	60	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	2	7	16.0	14.4	1.58	15.2	13.3	1.89
Rasual Butler	30	30	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	3	5	14.8	15.6	-0.79	14.1	14.6	-0.57
David West	35	35	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	9	-7	14.4	16.0	-1.58	13.5	15.0	-1.44
Boris Diaw	43	40	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	15	-19	15.5	15.3	0.23	13.9	14.9	-0.96
Patty Mills	52	51	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.26	-8	19	-27	15.4	15.4	-0.03	13.8	15.2	-1.48
Kyle Anderson	18	17	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	15	-19	15.1	15.5	-0.40	13.3	14.7	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 79, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
LAL 68, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
GSW 93, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%