NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	5.4 [754]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +15.0%
Houston Rockets	85		Comeback	1.0 [231]		LVP	Patrick Beverley (HOU): -12.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.06	0.05	15	64%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	5	92%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.03	10	69%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.04
Will Barton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	6	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.16	-0.01	-0.12	13	57%	0.11	11	-0.16	4	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	0.05	9	56%	-0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
KJ McDaniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Dekker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	48%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	21	43%	0.07	3	-0.10	9	89%	0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	10	27%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	10	46%	-0.02	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	12	19%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.6	28.4	16.4	26.8	1.6	32.5	132.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +51.1%

HOU -4.1%

HOU -8.8%

DEN +10.1%

DEN +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.8	14.1	14.9	105.0	85.9	105.1
season	14.9	14.0		104.3	105.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		106.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	15.8	13.2	16.4	14.8
HOU	14.4	15.5	15.6	11.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	75	75	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.08	20	0	20	13.9	17.5	-3.61	14.5	13.1	1.33
Gary Harris	61	61	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.25	23	-3	26	14.4	15.4	-0.98	15.0	12.8	2.18
Kenneth Faried	64	63	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.25	21	-1	22	14.4	15.6	-1.16	14.9	12.7	2.21
Joffrey Lauvergne	44	45	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.19	16	4	12	13.8	15.6	-1.77	15.2	13.3	1.92
Emmanuel Mudiay	79	78	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	7	6	15.2	13.2	2.05	13.8	15.3	-1.53
Jameer Nelson	50	51	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	14	-8	15.4	14.3	1.10	13.9	14.4	-0.51
Will Barton	41	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	16	-12	15.0	14.7	0.36	14.6	13.8	0.71
Darrell Arthur	32	33	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.22	-3	23	-26	15.7	14.4	1.24	13.0	14.7	-1.74
Randy Foye	38	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	25	-30	15.7	14.3	1.41	12.6	15.0	-2.37
Mike Miller	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	14.7	14.8	-0.06	10.0	14.3	-4.26
Erick Green	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	14.7	14.8	-0.06	10.0	14.3	-4.26
Nikola Jokic	8	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	19	-18	18.7	14.5	4.28	9.3	14.5	-5.21

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Montrezl Harrell	33	35	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.05	2	-22	24	13.9	14.3	-0.38	13.8	15.4	-1.55
KJ McDaniels	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-18	16	10.0	14.3	-4.26	14.7	14.8	-0.06
Sam Dekker	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-18	16	10.0	14.3	-4.26	14.7	14.8	-0.06
Jason Terry	22	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-19	18	13.1	14.4	-1.28	17.9	13.9	3.91
Patrick Beverley	42	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-18	16	16.0	12.7	3.29	14.4	15.1	-0.68
Terrence Jones	57	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.26	-18	-2	-16	14.6	13.5	1.18	14.9	14.7	0.17
Corey Brewer	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	-8	-4	14.0	14.3	-0.26	14.7	15.0	-0.31
Trevor Ariza	68	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.07	-13	-7	-6	14.4	13.6	0.80	14.7	15.1	-0.46
Ty Lawson	77	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	-4	-12	13.0	18.0	-4.97	15.4	12.5	2.90
James Harden	77	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.08	-20	0	-20	14.3	13.6	0.69	14.0	17.6	-3.63
Clint Capela	52	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.05	-16	-4	-12	14.3	13.9	0.37	15.1	14.6	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, VAN 79	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%
CHA 111, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.41,0.28,0.35,0.3,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0	94.5%
BOS 85, TOR 69	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%