NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	5.1 [785]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +13.6%
Miami Heat	78		Comeback	16.6 [59]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -31.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.11	-0.02	12	48%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.02	12	54%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	17	47%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	6	19%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
Derrick Rose	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	15	37%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	81%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	13	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.05	15	59%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	16	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.26	-0.06	-0.00	20	22%	-0.21	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.8	32.2	17.8	24.2	3.5	31.5	134.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +20.9%

CHI +1.7%

CHI +16.0%

CHI +11.3%

CHI +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.5	15.1	96.7	85.7	104.2
season	15.5	16.0		105.4	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		105.4	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.4	16.0	13.0	14.2	15.0
MIA	16.3	14.0	21.2	15.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	59	57	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.04	26	-15	41	14.9	15.1	-0.26	18.3	13.5	4.79
Aaron Brooks	41	43	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.21	13	-2	15	16.2	14.0	2.19	17.2	15.9	1.29
Pau Gasol	61	62	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-6	23	15.4	14.2	1.20	17.7	14.0	3.76
Tony Snell	73	70	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.09	15	-4	19	14.9	15.0	-0.05	16.9	15.1	1.80
Taj Gibson	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.27	2	9	-7	15.3	14.1	1.27	15.7	18.4	-2.67
Joakim Noah	57	55	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	5	1	14.3	16.1	-1.78	16.3	16.9	-0.64
Kirk Hinrich	30	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	15	-19	13.4	15.7	-2.31	14.0	17.7	-3.76
Derrick Rose	41	40	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	13	-15	14.6	15.3	-0.71	16.9	16.2	0.71
Nikola Mirotic	34	35	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.18	-18	29	-47	15.2	14.8	0.40	13.3	18.5	-5.18

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	33	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	-3	-5	17.8	15.8	2.03	14.7	15.1	-0.45
Goran Dragic	64	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-4	-3	15.9	18.0	-2.04	14.8	15.4	-0.69
Hassan Whiteside	71	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-4	-3	16.9	15.1	1.77	15.0	14.6	0.39
Mario Chalmers	48	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.22	-1	-10	9	16.0	17.1	-1.16	15.9	14.0	1.92
James Ennis	45	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-10	9	14.8	18.2	-3.33	15.1	14.9	0.22
Michael Beasley	37	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-7	3	16.7	16.4	0.30	15.7	14.4	1.30
Chris Andersen	20	20	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-7	3	15.1	16.9	-1.77	14.6	15.0	-0.39
Luol Deng	67	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-2	-7	16.9	15.4	1.51	14.8	15.4	-0.58
Dwyane Wade	70	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.16	-14	3	-17	17.5	13.4	4.03	14.3	17.2	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 111, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.74,0.85,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.4%
HOU 99, CHI 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.66,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.26,0.21,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0	91.8%
PHI 117, NYK 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0	91.2%