NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	4.3 [971]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +10.5%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	1.1 [1032]		LVP	Chris Andersen (MIA): -20.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	2	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.00	0.03	13	69%	0.14	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	10	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	12	46%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	3	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	12	62%	0.07	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	7	71%	0.12	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zoran Dragic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	14	56%	0.05	4	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
James Ennis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	7	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	20	36%	-0.10	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.06	0.01	8	25%	-0.11	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.5	30.6	17.7	28.3	3.8	37.2	147.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.3%

SAS +0.7%

SAS +7.2%

MIA -2.4%

SAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.1	105.6	90.0	104.2
season	15.4	16.0		106.9	102.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		105.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	14.9	14.7	18.5	16.1
MIA	14.8	16.4	16.6	15.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	73	74	0.62	-0.12	0.75	-0.05	23	-9	32	15.8	17.2	-1.40	16.1	15.2	0.87
Tony Parker	50	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	-1	16	15.5	16.9	-1.44	16.2	15.5	0.73
Matt Bonner	26	25	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.04	13	1	12	14.2	16.9	-2.74	16.8	15.6	1.19
Tiago Splitter	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.17	17	-3	20	15.3	16.9	-1.62	15.8	16.0	-0.12
Tim Duncan	46	47	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	3	8	14.9	17.3	-2.43	15.8	16.0	-0.24
Danny Green	28	28	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	3	8	15.4	16.4	-1.03	15.9	15.9	-0.01
Cory Joseph	40	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	7	0	16.9	15.5	1.39	15.5	16.2	-0.68
Boris Diaw	43	45	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.10	7	7	0	17.4	14.9	2.44	16.4	15.4	1.04
Manu Ginobili	34	33	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.19	-5	19	-24	16.6	15.8	0.88	16.0	15.8	0.16
Marco Belinelli	43	43	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.41	-13	27	-40	17.1	15.2	1.86	15.0	16.7	-1.63
Reggie Williams	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	11.0	16.2	-5.22	17.5	15.9	1.64
Aron Baynes	17	15	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.29	-12	26	-38	20.6	15.1	5.53	14.2	16.2	-2.04
Patty Mills	4	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	18	-22	16.2	16.1	0.16	18.0	15.8	2.17

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zoran Dragic	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	17.5	15.9	1.64	11.0	16.2	-5.22
Michael Beasley	33	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-15	16	16.5	15.5	1.02	15.5	16.4	-0.88
Chris Andersen	44	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-15	16	14.6	17.1	-2.52	17.0	15.2	1.84
Tyler Johnson	46	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-10	6	16.2	15.6	0.60	16.0	16.2	-0.25
Mario Chalmers	43	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-12	10	16.2	15.6	0.59	15.8	16.4	-0.64
Dwyane Wade	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-5	-4	15.5	16.9	-1.38	16.2	15.8	0.47
Hassan Whiteside	44	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	1	-16	17.1	14.7	2.37	15.4	16.7	-1.39
James Ennis	51	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-7	0	15.8	16.0	-0.18	16.9	15.1	1.76
Goran Dragic	73	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	2	-18	15.8	16.2	-0.34	16.3	15.4	0.82
Henry Walker	50	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.11	-19	5	-24	15.6	16.2	-0.63	15.7	16.6	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 109, CLE 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
UTA 98, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.4%
MEM 116, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%