NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	2.9 [1197]		MVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): +12.3%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	1.0 [1167]		LVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): -6.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	8	72%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Zoran Dragic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	13	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	5	73%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	64%	0.00	4	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Henry Walker	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	-0.08	11	27%	-0.03	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	7	11%	-0.06	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	12	72%	0.15	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.00	-0.02	12	77%	0.19	5	-0.07	7	71%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	9	75%	0.05	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Austin Daye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	46%	-0.00	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	-0.07	9	22%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	28.0	15.8	24.1	2.6	26.3	124.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +31.3%

ATL +9.4%

ATL +6.6%

ATL +1.6%

ATL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.4	15.1	89.6	103.1	104.2
season	16.0	14.9		102.4	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	15.8	16.8	14.1	15.6
ATL	14.9	12.4	13.2	17.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zoran Dragic	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	9.7	15.8	-6.17	26.0	14.0	12.02
Michael Beasley	46	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.32	8	-21	29	14.8	16.5	-1.70	14.6	14.2	0.41
James Ennis	30	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.37	9	-22	31	14.2	16.3	-2.15	14.8	14.1	0.73
Goran Dragic	54	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	-3	-7	16.3	14.8	1.44	14.2	14.6	-0.43
Mario Chalmers	63	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-7	1	14.9	17.2	-2.29	13.9	15.2	-1.31
Henry Walker	77	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-7	1	15.7	15.4	0.35	15.4	10.3	5.03
Tyler Johnson	47	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-6	-1	15.4	15.9	-0.56	14.3	14.4	-0.14
Luol Deng	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	4	-21	15.9	15.1	0.73	13.8	15.6	-1.86
Dwyane Wade	43	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	4	-21	17.3	14.3	3.00	13.3	15.2	-1.99
Udonis Haslem	50	50	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.20	-21	8	-29	16.5	14.8	1.70	14.2	14.6	-0.41

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	67	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-1	15	14.2	14.8	-0.63	15.5	16.0	-0.57
Al Horford	67	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	5	3	13.3	16.8	-3.45	14.9	17.1	-2.19
Kyle Korver	71	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.19	6	7	-1	14.0	15.4	-1.41	15.0	17.5	-2.49
Paul Millsap	62	63	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.11	16	-3	19	14.7	13.6	1.09	16.4	14.2	2.23
Dennis Schroder	61	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	2	9	15.0	13.1	1.91	16.3	14.5	1.82
Shelvin Mack	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.10	5	8	-3	14.2	14.5	-0.36	15.7	15.6	0.11
Kent Bazemore	36	37	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	7	-1	13.7	14.7	-1.06	15.6	15.7	-0.08
Thabo Sefolosha	26	25	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	17	-21	15.1	14.1	1.04	15.0	15.9	-0.87
Mike Muscala	39	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	10	-7	15.5	13.6	1.95	16.6	14.9	1.64
Austin Daye	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	24.0	14.3	9.75	10.0	15.7	-5.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 101, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1	97.4%
DAL 102, PHX 127	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
LAL 80, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%