NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	116		Excitement	6.2 [569]		MVP	Tony Snell (CHI): +28.3%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	4.7 [165]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -8.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.17	0.14	0.02	9	94%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23	0.19	0.05	0.01	8	92%	0.25	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	4	90%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	5	90%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	14	57%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.04	0.02	11	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.04	17	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.10	-0.00	13	67%	0.22	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	15	69%	0.17	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.02	11	73%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	3	43%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	57%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Amir Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	6	47%	0.05	1	-0.07	5	40%	-0.04
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.02	19	45%	-0.00	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	3.3	28.6	16.6	24.5	2.8	32.3	129.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +73.2%

TOR -20.4%

TOR -16.2%

CHI +9.8%

CHI +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	16.9	16.0	15.1	134.9	115.7	104.2
season	15.5	15.6		105.4	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.2		106.8	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.2	16.7	16.7	16.2	16.9
TOR	16.0	15.3	16.8	15.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	50	53	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.10	24	-11	35	16.6	17.4	-0.77	15.7	16.4	-0.63
Tony Snell	31	35	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.15	16	-3	19	16.3	17.3	-0.97	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Aaron Brooks	60	61	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	2	9	16.7	17.6	-0.91	15.6	16.9	-1.37
Jimmy Butler	70	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	2	9	17.3	15.2	2.16	16.0	16.0	-0.01
Pau Gasol	58	61	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	5	3	17.3	16.1	1.18	16.1	15.7	0.40
Kirk Hinrich	30	32	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.03	8	5	3	16.9	16.9	-0.01	17.3	15.2	2.07
Taj Gibson	24	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	12	-11	17.2	16.8	0.37	17.0	15.6	1.33
Joakim Noah	52	53	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.08	-7	20	-27	16.9	17.0	-0.10	16.2	15.7	0.49
Mike Dunleavy	55	55	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.03	-7	20	-27	16.9	17.0	-0.14	15.7	16.4	-0.68

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	57	54	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.06	3	-16	19	15.8	16.3	-0.55	17.6	15.8	1.80
James Johnson	25	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-8	3	16.0	16.0	-0.04	16.9	17.0	-0.09
Tyler Hansbrough	9	9	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-5	-3	17.0	15.9	1.12	14.8	17.2	-2.42
Terrence Ross	66	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-12	11	15.5	17.4	-1.95	17.6	15.1	2.49
Greivis Vasquez	55	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-14	15	17.1	14.1	3.03	16.9	17.0	-0.09
Lou Williams	48	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.17	-18	5	-23	15.2	17.0	-1.78	16.5	17.4	-0.90
Amir Johnson	56	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-9	5	17.0	14.2	2.82	16.9	16.9	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	73	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.13	-16	3	-19	16.1	15.4	0.75	16.7	18.1	-1.38
Patrick Patterson	56	52	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.13	-17	4	-21	15.0	17.7	-2.71	16.6	17.4	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.77,0.78,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.73,0.7,0.46,0.46,0.2,0.07,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 95, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.46,0.25,0.08,0.11,0.01,0	92.7%
DET 84, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.53,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.03,0,0	92.5%
NYK 75, CLE 65	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.22,0.19,0.03,0.1,0.02,0	91.3%