NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	95		Excitement	4.3 [961]		MVP	DeMarre Carroll (ATL): +13.8%
Golden State Warriors	114		Comeback	1.4 [961]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -18.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.03	-0.04	12	57%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Pero Antic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	1	60%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
John Jenkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	3	112%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	14	53%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	71%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	12	27%	-0.06	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.02
Kent Bazemore	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	6	31%	-0.08	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	55%	0.00	6	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Al Horford	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.16	-0.02	0.00	18	22%	-0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.23	0.01	0.12	13	89%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.17	0.01	0.10	12	81%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.03	0.03	11	69%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	12	54%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	57%	0.11	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	3	75%	0.03	3	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
James Michael McAdoo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	0.01	6	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	3.5	33.4	17.3	29.3	3.4	27.7	139.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +62.5%

ATL -11.9%

GSW +5.3%

ATL -6.6%

GSW +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	GSW	NBA	ATL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.9	13.8	15.1	99.0	116.3	104.2
season	14.9	13.6		106.7	109.2
opponent	15.5	15.4		99.7	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	17.2	17.3	15.1	15.9
GSW	12.5	14.8	13.4	14.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelvin Mack	41	42	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	13.6	17.5	-3.89	14.5	13.4	1.06
Mike Muscala	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-27	35	13.4	16.2	-2.82	15.4	13.6	1.79
Austin Daye	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-27	35	13.4	16.2	-2.82	15.4	13.6	1.79
Elton Brand	11	9	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.16	-10	-9	-1	18.5	15.5	2.93	14.1	13.8	0.29
Pero Antic	41	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-14	9	14.1	17.1	-3.00	13.9	13.8	0.15
John Jenkins	31	32	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-16	13	14.6	16.5	-1.85	15.3	13.2	2.13
Paul Millsap	54	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-14	9	16.7	14.8	1.96	13.5	14.2	-0.69
Dennis Schroder	43	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.31	-21	2	-23	17.0	14.9	2.06	13.7	13.9	-0.22
DeMarre Carroll	63	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-10	1	16.8	14.0	2.80	14.0	13.6	0.34
Al Horford	64	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.23	-20	1	-21	16.1	15.3	0.83	13.4	14.7	-1.34
Kent Bazemore	63	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.22	-21	2	-23	15.8	15.9	-0.07	13.7	14.2	-0.50
Jeff Teague	47	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	-1	-17	17.0	14.7	2.31	12.6	15.1	-2.48

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	57	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.28	26	-7	33	14.3	13.2	1.08	16.6	14.9	1.76
Draymond Green	60	58	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.09	18	1	17	13.5	14.3	-0.81	16.5	14.9	1.52
Stephen Curry	61	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.05	16	3	13	13.3	14.7	-1.37	16.1	15.4	0.67
Leandro Barbosa	57	56	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.04	12	7	5	13.8	13.9	-0.14	15.7	16.1	-0.49
Andrew Bogut	43	43	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	12	-5	13.6	14.1	-0.47	16.6	15.3	1.34
Festus Ezeli	20	20	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.31	17	2	15	13.4	14.0	-0.56	17.6	15.4	2.26
Justin Holiday	51	50	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.16	1	18	-17	14.0	13.6	0.40	15.3	16.5	-1.22
Shaun Livingston	43	42	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	15	-11	14.4	13.4	1.02	15.5	16.1	-0.56
Marreese Speights	29	26	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	22	-25	14.9	13.4	1.49	14.0	16.5	-2.50
Harrison Barnes	57	58	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.04	1	18	-17	14.0	13.7	0.32	16.0	15.6	0.43
James Michael McAdoo	12	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	23	-27	11.8	14.1	-2.29	10.2	16.7	-6.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 88, SAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
PHX 102, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
MIL 91, CHI 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%