NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	88		Excitement	3.4 [1077]		MVP	Charles Smith (SAS): +7.1%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	1.2 [1248]		LVP	Christian Laettner (WAS): -10.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	14	67%	0.07	3	-0.03	8	100%	0.02
Jahidi White	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	8	55%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	17	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	-0.02	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kwame Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.02	0.04	11	42%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	9	32%	-0.05	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.04	7	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	12	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	5	86%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Amal McCaskill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.04
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	7	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	12	42%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	27.9	14.8	24.1	1.5	27.4	124.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.6%

SAS +7.6%

SAS +18.6%

WAS -2.2%

SAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAS	NBA	WAS	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	15.5	15.6	94.6	112.0	102.3
season	16.5	15.8		102.2	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.3		98.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.3	15.5	18.0	13.9	15.7
SAS	14.7	13.8	15.4	18.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	46	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-15	15	15.3	16.1	-0.80	15.3	15.6	-0.33
Hubert Davis	47	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-10	5	15.7	15.6	0.16	15.7	15.2	0.48
Brendan Haywood	41	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-11	7	15.4	15.9	-0.49	16.7	14.5	2.28
Jahidi White	40	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-8	1	16.1	15.3	0.85	15.6	15.4	0.21
Chris Whitney	33	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.10	-11	-4	-7	17.5	14.6	2.87	15.3	15.5	-0.21
Tyronn Lue	60	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-11	7	14.6	17.5	-2.87	15.5	15.3	0.21
Richard Hamilton	72	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-10	5	15.3	17.0	-1.66	16.1	13.4	2.70
Christian Laettner	59	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	4	-23	15.8	15.4	0.49	14.6	16.9	-2.29
Courtney Alexander	67	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	5	-25	16.0	14.8	1.25	14.6	17.6	-2.94

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	44	44	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.20	21	-6	27	15.1	15.8	-0.63	16.5	14.9	1.67
Tim Duncan	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.18	17	-2	19	15.1	16.0	-0.90	16.8	14.2	2.57
Terry Porter	27	28	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.08	13	2	11	15.1	15.6	-0.56	16.5	15.3	1.24
David Robinson	46	45	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	4	7	14.5	16.5	-1.98	17.2	14.3	2.88
Bruce Bowen	37	36	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.15	14	1	13	15.5	15.5	-0.01	17.4	14.6	2.81
Charles Smith	52	54	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.31	-3	18	-21	15.6	15.3	0.34	14.3	17.6	-3.27
Tony Parker	65	65	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	13	-11	15.6	15.1	0.56	15.3	16.5	-1.24
Danny Ferry	14	14	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	9	-3	13.9	15.7	-1.82	14.1	15.9	-1.88
Amal McCaskill	36	37	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	14	-13	17.3	14.3	3.02	14.2	16.6	-2.36
Malik Rose	36	37	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.25	-5	20	-25	16.1	15.1	0.97	14.3	16.6	-2.27
Antonio Daniels	51	52	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	17	-19	15.6	15.3	0.32	15.2	16.3	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, DET 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
MIL 111, PHX 123	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
GSW 74, HOU 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%