NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	7.8 [285]		MVP	Gigi Datome (BOS): +21.8%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	6.9 [95]		LVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): -18.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gigi Datome	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.12	0.01	5	100%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	14	68%	0.15	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
James Young	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.06	0.03	14	55%	0.12	3	-0.15	10	80%	0.03
Marcus Smart	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.05	-0.03	16	50%	0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	8	56%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.18	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	12	27%	-0.15	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.09	-0.03	11	56%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.05	0.02	16	58%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.06	0.03	17	57%	0.19	1	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	16	50%	0.06	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.05
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	5	60%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	3	20%	-0.13	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	26.3	15.0	23.1	2.3	46.6	136.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +14.4%

BOS -1.9%

ORL +9.5%

ORL +28.8%

BOS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.1	104.3	108.4	104.2
season	14.3	14.9		103.1	100.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.8	20.2	14.3	14.3	15.5
ORL	17.5	14.0	16.2	12.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	39	41	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.14	4	-9	13	14.8	16.0	-1.15	13.6	16.0	-2.37
Gigi Datome	17	18	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.08	6	-11	17	14.4	15.8	-1.43	17.1	14.5	2.59
Tyler Zeller	41	43	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.12	-1	-4	3	16.9	14.4	2.49	16.2	13.9	2.33
James Young	11	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.09	-4	-1	-3	19.1	15.0	4.04	14.1	15.1	-0.98
Kelly Olynyk	27	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-2	-1	16.7	15.1	1.61	15.6	14.7	0.93
Marcus Smart	74	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-4	3	15.6	15.0	0.60	15.5	13.0	2.48
Isaiah Thomas	61	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.53	0	-5	5	15.4	15.8	-0.46	14.4	16.1	-1.74
Brandon Bass	77	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.48	-2	-3	1	14.6	19.6	-5.04	15.0	14.8	0.15
Jae Crowder	65	63	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.43	-10	5	-15	15.2	16.2	-1.04	15.0	14.9	0.08
Evan Turner	60	62	-0.86	0.36	-1.21	-0.39	-16	11	-27	15.4	15.8	-0.38	13.7	17.3	-3.64

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	83	83	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.31	16	-11	27	14.1	20.6	-6.44	16.0	11.8	4.19
Tobias Harris	85	84	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.33	15	-10	25	14.8	16.4	-1.61	15.4	16.8	-1.43
Victor Oladipo	85	84	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.33	15	-10	25	14.8	16.4	-1.61	15.4	16.8	-1.43
Maurice Harkless	59	58	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.11	19	-14	33	14.4	15.9	-1.59	16.2	14.5	1.70
Dewayne Dedmon	51	51	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	-10	25	15.7	14.0	1.70	17.4	13.3	4.00
Aaron Gordon	34	33	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.41	-6	11	-17	13.6	15.7	-2.18	14.2	16.2	-2.02
Kyle O'Quinn	9	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	11	-17	17.8	14.7	3.11	14.0	15.7	-1.66
Andrew Nicholson	18	16	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	15	-25	16.4	14.6	1.77	16.2	15.4	0.80
Ben Gordon	18	18	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.09	-17	22	-39	17.4	14.4	3.07	15.2	15.6	-0.37
Channing Frye	33	35	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.06	-16	21	-37	16.3	14.3	2.01	12.8	17.2	-4.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.54,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 108, CHA 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.78,0.96,1	91.5%
SAC 93, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.23,0.39,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.71,0.9,0.96,1	91.2%
IND 105, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.72,0.84,0.73,1	89.8%