NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	7.6 [312]		MVP	Jason Terry (HOU): +20.5%
Atlanta Hawks	104		Comeback	38.7 [56]		LVP	Corey Brewer (HOU): -19.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.04	-0.02	13	78%	0.22	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.04	0.01	14	47%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	12	37%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.07,-0.07	0.07	-0.14	-0.00	11	64%	-0.06	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.19
Josh Smith	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.01,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.03	-0.13	-0.01	14	50%	0.02	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.00	14	29%	-0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.16	0.02	6	79%	0.23	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	-0.01	14	64%	0.21	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	12	71%	0.22	5	-0.20	11	82%	0.00
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	14	53%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	16	44%	0.01	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.05
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	5	8%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	24.5	16.5	22.0	1.8	36.2	128.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +19.5%

ATL +24.9%

ATL +16.5%

HOU -11.6%

ATL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ATL	NBA	HOU	ATL	NBA
this game	14.6	14.3	15.1	97.0	104.0	104.2
season	14.3	14.9		105.6	106.7
opponent	15.4	14.9		101.8	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.9	14.8	15.5	15.5	14.6
ATL	13.3	16.5	14.5	13.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	50	51	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-13	18	14.8	14.4	0.37	14.3	14.4	-0.07
Pablo Prigioni	28	29	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.10	-1	-7	6	14.3	14.7	-0.41	14.9	14.1	0.75
Trevor Ariza	79	79	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.24	4	-12	16	14.2	16.3	-2.17	14.5	13.9	0.60
Corey Brewer	63	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	6	-20	15.0	13.9	1.14	14.3	14.3	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	68	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-5	2	15.0	13.8	1.18	14.4	14.2	0.16
Terrence Jones	74	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.09	-15	7	-22	14.6	14.5	0.13	14.9	12.6	2.36
Jason Terry	59	60	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	2	-12	14.5	14.8	-0.35	13.8	15.0	-1.20
Donatas Motiejunas	74	74	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.41	-6	-2	-4	14.5	15.1	-0.62	13.8	16.0	-2.20

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	66	64	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.26	23	-15	38	13.5	15.9	-2.35	14.9	14.1	0.82
Paul Millsap	69	66	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.46	8	0	8	14.6	13.8	0.71	14.6	14.6	0.02
Al Horford	76	77	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-9	26	13.9	15.5	-1.59	14.6	14.8	-0.26
DeMarre Carroll	75	73	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	4	0	14.2	14.7	-0.47	14.3	15.5	-1.15
Dennis Schroder	54	56	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	2	4	14.2	14.5	-0.36	15.0	14.1	0.97
Kyle Korver	61	63	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.28	10	-2	12	15.2	13.0	2.18	15.0	13.9	1.14
Mike Scott	26	28	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.07	-2	10	-12	15.0	14.1	0.96	15.8	14.1	1.68
Pero Antic	29	27	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.01	-7	15	-22	14.2	14.4	-0.22	13.5	15.0	-1.51
Kent Bazemore	44	41	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	0.11	-19	27	-46	14.7	14.0	0.75	13.5	15.4	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.19,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.24,0.28,0.69,0.45,0.76,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 75, IND 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.47,0.78,0.97,0.99,1	90.9%
NOP 117, SAC 122	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.13,0.16,0.06,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.29,0.6,0.69,0.45,0.78,0.95,1	90.3%
NYK 115, MIA 120	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.33,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.73,1	90.2%