NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	110		Excitement	5.6 [688]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +19.7%
Sacramento Kings	99		Comeback	1.2 [1060]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (POR): -11.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.08	0.03	20	67%	0.24	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Robin Lopez	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	9	79%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.17	0.00	0.03	8	94%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.05	0.03	-0.05	25	44%	0.08	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
Alonzo Gee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Freeland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	2	75%	0.02	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	12	62%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	22	50%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	86%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ray McCallum	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	13	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	46%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	34.5	16.7	28.1	2.6	26.6	137.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +45.3%

SAC -4.5%

POR +13.0%

SAC -10.8%

POR +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAC	NBA	POR	SAC	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	15.1	114.6	105.3	104.2
season	15.3	14.9		106.5	103.7
opponent	14.8	15.0		107.6	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.8	14.1	17.2	18.0	16.0
SAC	15.9	14.1	14.1	13.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	73	72	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.03	23	-12	35	16.4	14.8	1.53	13.4	17.3	-3.93
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	76	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.05	21	-10	31	15.9	16.3	-0.34	14.1	15.2	-1.06
Robin Lopez	62	60	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.00	22	-11	33	16.2	15.6	0.58	13.4	15.8	-2.37
Nicolas Batum	61	59	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.03	17	-6	23	17.1	14.1	3.00	14.2	14.5	-0.37
Wesley Matthews	67	65	0.28	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	6	-1	15.4	17.3	-1.89	13.8	15.4	-1.65
Alonzo Gee	14	13	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.04	9	2	7	13.0	16.5	-3.50	13.5	14.4	-0.98
Joel Freeland	5	4	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	9	-7	14.4	16.1	-1.68	12.7	14.4	-1.63
Arron Afflalo	50	51	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.24	-9	20	-29	16.3	15.7	0.56	15.3	13.1	2.24
Chris Kaman	33	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.18	-11	22	-33	15.6	16.2	-0.54	15.8	13.4	2.37
Steve Blake	23	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.15	-12	23	-35	14.8	16.4	-1.53	17.3	13.4	3.93
Meyers Leonard	15	14	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.14	-12	23	-35	16.8	15.8	0.96	15.9	14.0	1.82

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Evans	29	27	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.22	11	-22	33	16.7	13.2	3.44	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Ryan Hollins	54	53	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.20	8	-19	27	15.0	13.4	1.58	16.1	15.8	0.32
Andre Miller	50	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.15	3	-14	17	14.7	13.9	0.79	16.1	15.9	0.15
Ben McLemore	48	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-12	13	14.1	14.6	-0.50	16.2	15.8	0.35
Carl Landry	32	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.09	-12	1	-13	14.0	14.5	-0.42	16.3	15.8	0.52
Omri Casspi	51	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.16	-5	-6	1	15.4	13.0	2.37	15.6	16.4	-0.77
Rudy Gay	74	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	0	-11	13.9	15.7	-1.83	16.1	15.5	0.56
Derrick Williams	46	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.08	-13	2	-15	13.2	15.4	-2.14	15.7	16.3	-0.56
Jason Thompson	36	40	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.03	-17	6	-23	13.3	14.9	-1.63	16.1	15.9	0.23
Ray McCallum	50	52	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.04	-20	9	-29	13.4	15.3	-1.86	16.1	15.9	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.28,0.44,0.31,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.25,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.11,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 112, VAN 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.02,0,0.02,0	94.1%
PHX 105, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.23,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0	94.0%
GSW 92, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.23,0.3,0.24,0.13,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.8%