NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	4.3 [967]		MVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (NYK): +12.8%
New York Knicks	87		Comeback	1.2 [1050]		LVP	Lance Thomas (NYK): -16.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	8	78%	0.07	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	11	75%	0.17	7	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.02	0.07	6	72%	0.03	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Mario Chalmers	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	14	39%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	7	60%	0.06	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
James Ennis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.03	5	-0.10	8	87%	0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.01	-0.05	9	85%	0.19	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	69%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	14	59%	0.04	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Travis Wear	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cleanthony Early	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	7	14%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	10	48%	-0.00	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.03
Lance Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.00	9	11%	-0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	32.3	16.6	28.7	2.0	26.6	136.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.1%

MIA +9.0%

MIA +23.6%

NYK -3.1%

MIA +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	13.6	14.5	15.1	107.8	85.3	104.2
season	16.0	16.1		102.4	98.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		108.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	13.3	12.0	15.6	13.6
NYK	13.3	15.0	14.3	15.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	79	77	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.08	19	5	14	13.8	12.8	0.98	14.4	14.9	-0.48
Udonis Haslem	61	61	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	16	-8	13.2	14.2	-1.03	13.9	15.4	-1.54
Hassan Whiteside	45	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	11	2	13.2	13.9	-0.64	13.8	15.1	-1.30
Luol Deng	73	69	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.26	19	5	14	14.2	12.0	2.23	14.9	13.8	1.04
Dwyane Wade	48	49	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	15	-6	13.4	13.7	-0.35	14.1	14.9	-0.76
Shabazz Napier	72	72	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.18	15	9	6	13.4	14.1	-0.74	14.5	14.7	-0.21
Tyler Johnson	48	47	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.15	13	11	2	14.3	13.0	1.29	15.1	14.1	1.01
James Ennis	44	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.13	9	15	-6	13.0	14.0	-1.06	15.2	14.0	1.28
Chris Andersen	45	45	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.31	15	9	6	13.5	13.7	-0.21	15.0	14.1	0.90

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	31	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-23	22	13.2	15.1	-1.86	13.9	13.5	0.43
Lou Amundson	23	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-19	14	14.0	14.7	-0.73	14.2	13.4	0.76
Cleanthony Early	47	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	-17	10	14.3	14.7	-0.41	14.6	12.6	1.96
Travis Wear	34	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-16	8	15.9	13.8	2.09	14.2	13.3	0.97
Quincy Acy	29	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.23	-14	-10	-4	15.0	14.3	0.72	12.8	13.9	-1.16
Andrea Bargnani	48	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.11	-10	-14	4	14.8	14.3	0.47	13.7	13.5	0.23
Langston Galloway	77	78	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.21	-15	-9	-6	14.7	13.9	0.85	14.1	12.1	1.98
Lance Thomas	44	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	-12	0	14.2	14.7	-0.47	12.4	14.4	-1.96
Jason Smith	50	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.07	-15	-9	-6	14.5	14.5	0.04	13.1	14.1	-1.04
Jose Calderon	63	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.25	-21	-3	-18	14.1	15.2	-1.03	13.2	14.3	-1.12
Tim Hardaway Jr.	64	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	-12	0	14.7	14.3	0.37	13.4	13.8	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 103, CHH 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
MIN 108, PHX 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
PHI 116, MIL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	95.9%