NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	102		Excitement	6.6 [483]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +16.7%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	1.0 [419]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (DAL): -10.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.06	-0.03	18	49%	0.12	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.02	10	62%	0.16	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	44%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Tony Snell	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	10	57%	0.09	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.03	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	17	54%	0.01	5	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.07	0.02	15	75%	0.25	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.03	0.03	14	63%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	18	44%	0.05	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.8	30.2	16.5	24.0	2.8	34.2	133.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +50.9%

DAL -8.7%

CHI +35.8%

DAL -27.1%

DAL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	17.4	13.4	15.1	109.7	104.3	104.2
season	15.5	14.6		105.4	107.6
opponent	15.0	15.2		105.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.2	17.0	17.6	17.8	17.4
DAL	14.1	13.0	13.7	12.9	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	72	72	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-4	12	17.5	17.0	0.58	13.7	12.6	1.09
Pau Gasol	75	73	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-5	14	17.6	16.7	0.84	13.3	13.9	-0.56
Taj Gibson	63	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	5	-6	17.5	17.3	0.19	13.0	14.2	-1.19
Jimmy Butler	73	72	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	17.9	15.4	2.55	13.4	13.6	-0.28
Aaron Brooks	26	28	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.16	3	1	2	16.3	17.8	-1.51	13.3	13.5	-0.15
Tony Snell	59	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-1	6	17.6	17.0	0.58	13.7	12.9	0.82
Kirk Hinrich	41	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.21	-1	5	-6	16.5	18.1	-1.58	12.8	14.0	-1.17
Joakim Noah	44	47	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	0	4	17.3	17.4	-0.11	14.1	12.8	1.32
Nikola Mirotic	4	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	8	-12	14.0	17.6	-3.55	14.0	13.4	0.60
E'Twaun Moore	8	9	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	9	-14	17.7	17.4	0.39	13.2	13.4	-0.22

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	22	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-7	10	13.0	13.6	-0.61	17.1	17.5	-0.41
Jose Juan Barea	23	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	13.8	13.3	0.53	14.7	18.2	-3.56
Dirk Nowitzki	69	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-8	12	13.0	14.6	-1.60	17.4	17.4	-0.04
Rajon Rondo	53	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	1	-6	13.8	13.0	0.80	17.0	18.0	-1.04
Dwight Powell	43	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	4	-12	13.8	13.1	0.72	16.5	18.1	-1.63
Monta Ellis	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-4	4	13.4	13.4	-0.01	18.1	15.2	2.90
Chandler Parsons	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-4	4	13.4	13.4	-0.01	18.1	15.2	2.90
Devin Harris	50	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	0	-4	12.9	14.0	-1.12	17.4	17.3	0.10
Tyson Chandler	68	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	3	-10	13.7	12.6	1.17	17.8	16.2	1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 105, POR 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.33,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.45,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
BOS 86, DET 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	93.7%
UTA 82, PHX 74	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.6%