NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	3.7 [1070]		MVP	Luol Deng (MIA): +16.8%
Sacramento Kings	83		Comeback	1.4 [498]		LVP	Darren Collison (SAC): -9.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.02	0.00	18	66%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.03	0.05	20	65%	0.16	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Shawne Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.00	2	117%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Danny Granger	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	4	33%	0.03	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
James Ennis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.03	5	58%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	43%	-0.01	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray McCallum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	5	110%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	11	45%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	14	52%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	12	52%	0.06	8	-0.14	9	100%	0.04
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	0.07	12	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.7	30.2	15.7	21.0	2.6	25.5	124.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.1%

MIA +1.7%

MIA +0.9%

MIA +13.0%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.6	15.4	15.1	105.6	92.2	104.2
season	16.0	14.9		102.4	103.7
opponent	14.8	15.3		107.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	15.9	14.2	20.4	16.6
SAC	14.8	15.4	15.2	16.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-1	14	16.7	16.4	0.25	15.9	13.3	2.58
Luol Deng	71	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	2	8	16.1	18.7	-2.63	14.8	17.7	-2.85
Shabazz Napier	70	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	1	10	17.0	15.3	1.62	15.6	14.7	0.89
Mario Chalmers	67	66	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	8	-4	16.3	17.4	-1.11	14.9	16.7	-1.86
Hassan Whiteside	29	30	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	7	-2	15.0	17.4	-2.43	14.7	15.7	-0.98
Shawne Williams	34	35	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	4	4	15.4	17.4	-1.97	15.3	15.4	-0.12
Norris Cole	34	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	6	0	16.8	16.5	0.34	15.6	15.2	0.41
James Ennis	9	10	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	9	-6	15.1	16.8	-1.67	16.4	15.3	1.14
Danny Granger	19	18	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	10	-8	18.7	16.1	2.63	17.7	14.8	2.85
Udonis Haslem	44	42	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	14	-16	18.6	14.7	3.83	15.1	15.7	-0.60

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Hollins	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	12.7	15.5	-2.82	17.7	16.6	1.19
Ray McCallum	28	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.09	1	-13	14	15.4	15.4	0.01	16.2	16.8	-0.65
Omri Casspi	32	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-15	18	13.7	16.3	-2.59	17.1	16.3	0.86
Jason Thompson	39	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-5	-2	15.6	15.2	0.35	16.9	16.4	0.49
Nik Stauskas	27	26	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.08	-5	-7	2	16.9	14.8	2.09	15.2	17.2	-2.05
DeMarcus Cousins	71	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	15.1	16.6	-1.58	17.1	14.2	2.87
Ben McLemore	71	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.07	-10	-2	-8	14.8	17.6	-2.78	17.0	15.1	1.94
Reggie Evans	46	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	-4	-4	15.4	15.4	0.00	15.7	17.7	-1.99
Derrick Williams	62	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.00	-15	3	-18	16.1	13.8	2.33	16.7	16.5	0.14
Darren Collison	71	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	4	-20	15.9	13.6	2.29	16.5	17.0	-0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.21,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 101, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
TOR 101, VAN 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
IND 108, LAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%