NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	4.9 [835]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +10.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	2.7 [798]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	6	83%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	16	46%	0.06	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Justin Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Danny Granger	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Ennis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	11	32%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	18	48%	-0.05	3	-0.07	12	75%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.02	10	75%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	20	56%	0.11	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	9	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	17	44%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	10	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	29.2	17.4	27.2	3.4	29.8	133.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +32.9%

MIA -7.8%

POR +21.2%

POR +3.1%

POR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.1	94.3	112.5	104.2
season	16.0	15.3		102.4	106.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		102.7	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	16.4	18.0	15.7	17.0
POR	16.3	15.6	14.8	16.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Ennis	28	29	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.26	11	-27	38	14.7	18.1	-3.39	16.6	15.3	1.32
Hassan Whiteside	36	35	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-17	18	15.8	17.8	-2.00	16.1	15.5	0.58
Justin Hamilton	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-21	26	15.1	17.2	-2.05	18.5	15.5	3.04
Shabazz Napier	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-21	26	15.1	17.2	-2.05	18.5	15.5	3.04
Shawne Williams	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-21	26	15.1	17.2	-2.05	18.5	15.5	3.04
Norris Cole	28	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-16	16	15.1	17.9	-2.81	14.8	16.1	-1.38
Danny Granger	41	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-15	14	16.8	17.2	-0.44	15.4	16.0	-0.53
Luol Deng	61	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.12	-19	3	-22	17.8	15.1	2.76	15.5	16.3	-0.86
Mario Chalmers	52	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.13	-21	5	-26	18.3	15.1	3.22	15.8	15.6	0.15
Chris Andersen	43	43	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.01	-17	1	-18	18.1	15.9	2.25	15.4	16.0	-0.58
Chris Bosh	67	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.13	-22	6	-28	16.7	17.9	-1.20	15.5	16.6	-1.07
Dwyane Wade	60	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.23	-27	11	-38	18.1	14.7	3.39	15.3	16.6	-1.32

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	59	57	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.03	22	-6	28	15.4	16.3	-0.90	16.5	18.0	-1.51
LaMarcus Aldridge	59	59	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.18	25	-9	34	15.3	16.6	-1.26	17.9	15.0	2.91
Nicolas Batum	52	53	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.22	22	-6	28	15.4	16.3	-0.91	18.3	15.0	3.35
Chris Kaman	42	41	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	4	8	15.7	15.8	-0.14	16.7	17.2	-0.48
Damian Lillard	60	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.17	18	-2	20	15.6	16.0	-0.38	17.7	15.5	2.13
Meyers Leonard	35	36	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.20	14	2	12	14.9	16.3	-1.37	17.7	16.5	1.15
Allen Crabbe	32	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	15	-14	16.0	15.6	0.46	15.5	17.9	-2.41
Steve Blake	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.12	-2	18	-20	15.5	15.9	-0.45	16.2	17.5	-1.25
Will Barton	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	21	-26	18.5	15.5	3.04	15.1	17.2	-2.05
Victor Claver	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	21	-26	18.5	15.5	3.04	15.1	17.2	-2.05
Dorell Wright	15	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	22	-28	16.5	15.6	0.96	12.6	17.9	-5.29
Thomas Robinson	17	17	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	24	-32	17.1	15.4	1.64	17.6	16.8	0.74
CJ McCollum	17	17	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	24	-32	17.1	15.4	1.64	17.6	16.8	0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 99, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CLE 91, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%
MIA 73, PHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%