NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	7.6 [315]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +20.6%
Chicago Bulls	106		Comeback	5.9 [556]		LVP	Nate Robinson (DEN): -17.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	14	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Wilson Chandler	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	16	61%	0.16	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	7	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Timofey Mozgov	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	16	56%	0.07	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	14	63%	0.10	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
JJ Hickson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	5	8%	-0.11	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	7	0%	-0.18	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	4	125%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.00	0.00	14	70%	0.23	3	-0.11	9	100%	0.07
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	17	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Tony Snell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	8	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.00	9	55%	0.03	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.2,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	0.05	-0.02	25	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.4	29.2	15.8	29.1	2.6	33.4	134.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +30.9%

CHI +5.9%

DEN -10.3%

CHI +24.8%

DEN -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	14.0	14.9	15.1	102.0	106.0	104.2
season	14.6	15.5		103.4	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.5	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	12.8	15.4	13.0	14.0
CHI	15.7	14.8	13.4	15.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Timofey Mozgov	51	51	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-9	13	13.4	14.7	-1.26	15.9	13.9	2.04
Nate Robinson	28	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-2	-1	15.8	13.3	2.48	15.0	14.9	0.14
Kenneth Faried	77	77	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.28	5	-10	15	13.0	17.7	-4.74	15.0	14.6	0.43
Wilson Chandler	69	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-4	3	13.7	14.9	-1.19	15.2	14.2	1.07
Gary Harris	34	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	0	-5	14.7	13.7	0.97	14.1	15.3	-1.25
Arron Afflalo	83	85	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-5	5	13.4	17.5	-4.13	15.1	13.5	1.61
Jusuf Nurkic	44	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.18	-7	2	-9	15.0	13.3	1.65	13.7	15.8	-2.05
JJ Hickson	26	27	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	7	-19	16.8	13.1	3.75	15.0	14.9	0.09
Ty Lawson	83	84	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	1	-7	14.1	13.5	0.64	14.6	16.6	-2.05

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Brooks	48	49	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-9	23	14.9	14.9	0.03	14.0	14.1	-0.12
Taj Gibson	35	37	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-3	11	16.0	14.3	1.69	15.9	12.9	3.04
Kirk Hinrich	57	54	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.19	14	-9	23	14.2	15.8	-1.64	14.8	13.2	1.58
Derrick Rose	67	67	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.44	1	4	-3	14.7	15.4	-0.69	13.4	15.4	-1.97
Joakim Noah	66	67	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.38	-6	11	-17	14.7	15.4	-0.69	12.9	16.4	-3.45
Nikola Mirotic	23	21	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	0	5	15.4	14.7	0.69	14.5	13.9	0.55
Jimmy Butler	83	83	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	8	-11	14.9	15.1	-0.19	13.8	15.4	-1.59
Pau Gasol	76	72	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	4	-3	14.4	16.4	-1.94	14.1	13.9	0.16
Tony Snell	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	5	-5	15.9	14.8	1.11	15.3	13.9	1.40
Mike Dunleavy	35	35	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.03	-9	14	-23	16.3	14.2	2.09	14.3	13.9	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.53,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 95, NYK 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.83,0.8,0.99,1,1,1	91.5%
CHI 89, TOR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1	91.4%
MIA 87, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.31,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.73,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.83,1	91.1%