NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	7.1 [367]		MVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): +17.1%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	5.0 [418]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -23.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	4	50%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	13	60%	0.07	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05
Derrick Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Joakim Noah	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	10	55%	0.03	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	11	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Luol Deng	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	19	45%	0.03	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	10	44%	-0.10	4	-0.13	5	80%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.07	0.03	10	86%	0.22	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.06	-0.03	21	54%	0.16	1	-0.00	10	100%	0.08
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.08	-0.01	15	46%	0.13	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	10	45%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	8	29%	-0.08	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	12	42%	-0.08	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.3	28.4	15.7	26.3	2.4	36.3	136.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +19.8%

TOR +21.2%

TOR +4.1%

TOR +4.0%

TOR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.2	15.3	93.7	103.1	106.0
season	14.7	15.0		101.9	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		111.5	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.4	13.9	14.9	15.9	15.0
TOR	14.6	14.3	17.8	14.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	22	22	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.06	9	-19	28	13.7	15.4	-1.72	16.4	14.8	1.57
James Johnson	10	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-13	16	11.6	15.4	-3.80	14.6	15.2	-0.59
John Salmons	63	65	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.10	-5	-5	0	15.9	13.3	2.59	15.4	14.7	0.66
Brad Miller	39	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-6	2	14.1	15.6	-1.52	15.3	15.0	0.31
Joakim Noah	62	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-6	2	15.4	14.3	1.07	14.7	16.2	-1.50
Luol Deng	85	85	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	3	-16	15.4	11.6	3.80	15.2	14.6	0.59
Taj Gibson	68	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	0	-10	15.3	14.1	1.19	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Kirk Hinrich	59	59	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.23	-12	2	-14	14.1	16.4	-2.33	14.9	15.5	-0.54
Derrick Rose	67	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.20	-14	4	-18	15.2	14.5	0.76	15.2	15.0	0.22

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.18	20	-10	30	14.8	16.2	-1.34	15.8	12.5	3.31
Jose Calderon	67	66	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-4	18	14.7	16.1	-1.41	15.6	13.7	1.94
Chris Bosh	81	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	2	6	14.8	16.9	-2.03	15.1	14.7	0.30
Antoine Wright	36	35	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	7	-4	15.9	14.7	1.26	12.7	16.3	-3.57
Andrea Bargnani	72	73	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	4	2	15.7	13.6	2.04	15.0	15.0	0.00
Amir Johnson	32	31	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	4	2	15.0	15.2	-0.23	15.8	14.6	1.20
DeMar DeRozan	36	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.07	9	1	8	15.4	15.0	0.37	15.9	14.5	1.39
Rasho Nesterovic	7	7	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	10	-10	14.3	15.2	-0.94	10.9	15.3	-4.47
Marco Belinelli	33	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	13	-16	15.9	14.8	1.10	14.2	15.5	-1.30
Jarrett Jack	43	42	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.01	-13	23	-36	15.0	15.3	-0.37	14.5	15.4	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 101, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.13,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.23,0.41,0.41,0.66,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	91.9%
DEN 101, CHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.53,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.97,1	91.4%
DET 77, CLE 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.7,0.91,1,1	91.1%