NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	5.4 [732]		MVP	CJ Miles (IND): +17.2%
Indiana Pacers	106		Comeback	3.8 [485]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -6.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	9	78%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	11	56%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	14	58%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	55%	0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.02	0.04	20	48%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.01	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.04	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.06	-0.01	16	60%	0.19	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.01	7	67%	0.16	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	4	92%	0.16	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.03	14	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Solomon Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	57%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Chris Copeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	41%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	30.6	15.8	24.6	1.7	34.5	135.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +11.8%

IND +17.2%

IND +21.8%

MIA -2.1%

IND +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	16.8	15.1	106.7	120.5	104.2
season	16.0	16.0		102.4	102.3
opponent	15.0	15.3		102.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	15.6	18.6	13.7	15.7
IND	17.7	16.5	14.8	18.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	20	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-13	15	14.8	16.0	-1.21	16.3	16.9	-0.59
Mario Chalmers	58	57	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-10	9	16.0	15.2	0.79	17.8	15.0	2.79
Chris Andersen	35	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-8	5	17.6	14.5	3.06	17.6	16.2	1.41
Luol Deng	57	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-4	-3	16.3	14.7	1.60	17.6	15.5	2.05
Dwyane Wade	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-4	-3	15.5	16.7	-1.16	17.3	15.0	2.27
Hassan Whiteside	40	36	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	0	-11	15.2	16.2	-1.03	15.5	17.7	-2.21
Danny Granger	50	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-5	-1	14.6	17.2	-2.51	15.8	18.2	-2.34
Norris Cole	45	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-2	-7	15.3	16.2	-0.87	15.4	18.3	-2.88
Chris Bosh	69	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	2	-15	16.0	14.8	1.21	16.9	16.3	0.59

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Copeland	28	28	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-2	15	14.2	18.0	-3.75	15.2	16.0	-0.72
CJ Miles	65	65	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	15.6	20.3	-4.74	14.8	18.2	-3.32
David West	56	57	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	-2	15	16.6	17.2	-0.60	16.1	15.2	0.91
CJ Watson	41	42	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	1	9	15.6	17.9	-2.33	15.3	16.1	-0.86
Lavoy Allen	38	39	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	3	5	14.4	18.6	-4.25	14.2	17.0	-2.83
Solomon Hill	41	42	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	10	-9	19.2	14.7	4.52	17.0	14.6	2.43
Roy Hibbert	50	50	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	8	-5	18.6	14.4	4.25	17.0	14.2	2.83
Luis Scola	32	32	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	13	-15	17.2	16.6	0.60	15.2	16.1	-0.91
George Hill	56	55	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	13	-15	18.1	14.5	3.63	15.9	15.4	0.49
Rodney Stuckey	33	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.06	0	11	-11	17.7	16.3	1.47	16.5	15.2	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.6,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.52,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	93.3%
WAS 78, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.97,1,1	93.2%
DET 81, POR 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.78,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.95,1	92.9%