NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	87		Excitement	2.8 [1209]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (DAL): +9.6%
Dallas Mavericks	114		Comeback	1.3 [927]		LVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): -12.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Humphries	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	5	79%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Martell Webster	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	4	23%	0.02	1	-0.00	5	60%	0.02
John Wall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	7	61%	0.04	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	56%	0.03	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	7	60%	0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	64%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Otto Porter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	4	70%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	4	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Andre Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	7	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bradley Beal	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	14	33%	-0.07	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	9	78%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.05	8	87%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.05	8	70%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.03	15	59%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.02	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	0.01	10	46%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	31.6	17.4	28.5	1.7	28.2	133.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +36.3%

DAL +3.3%

WAS -5.4%

DAL +17.6%

WAS -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DAL	NBA	WAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.1	15.1	87.9	116.3	104.2
season	15.1	14.6		102.9	107.6
opponent	15.0	15.3		105.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.0	15.6	15.3	14.5	15.1
DAL	14.3	11.1	14.1	17.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-25	23	11.9	15.4	-3.51	17.7	13.8	3.88
Otto Porter	16	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-25	23	12.5	15.6	-3.13	17.4	13.5	3.90
DeJuan Blair	23	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-25	23	14.5	15.3	-0.84	17.6	13.1	4.49
Martell Webster	29	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	-21	15	15.6	14.9	0.71	14.3	14.0	0.31
Kevin Seraphin	44	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	-18	9	15.2	15.1	0.07	14.4	13.9	0.59
Andre Miller	35	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-17	7	15.8	14.7	1.09	15.0	13.7	1.31
Marcin Gortat	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.15	-12	-15	3	15.5	14.8	0.74	14.4	13.9	0.59
Nene	34	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	-20	13	14.2	15.6	-1.44	12.9	14.8	-1.86
Rasual Butler	48	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.12	-13	-14	1	15.7	14.6	1.10	13.4	14.7	-1.36
Bradley Beal	61	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	-12	-3	14.9	15.5	-0.61	13.6	15.1	-1.49
John Wall	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.17	-17	-10	-7	14.7	15.8	-1.09	13.7	15.0	-1.31
Paul Pierce	47	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.11	-16	-11	-5	15.3	14.9	0.42	13.3	14.9	-1.65
Kris Humphries	45	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.33	-24	-3	-21	16.3	14.1	2.22	13.2	14.8	-1.61

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	59	59	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.17	20	7	13	13.1	15.7	-2.62	15.1	15.1	0.04
Chandler Parsons	59	59	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.17	20	7	13	13.1	15.7	-2.62	15.1	15.1	0.04
Tyson Chandler	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.19	18	9	9	13.1	15.0	-1.85	15.8	14.6	1.16
Jose Juan Barea	46	45	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.16	15	12	3	14.1	14.1	0.03	14.9	15.3	-0.47
Dirk Nowitzki	54	56	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.24	17	10	7	13.9	14.4	-0.46	15.5	14.6	0.87
Richard Jefferson	47	46	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.13	13	14	-1	14.1	14.1	0.07	15.9	14.4	1.48
Rajon Rondo	55	58	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.21	15	12	3	14.6	13.5	1.03	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Greg Smith	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.13	10	17	-7	14.5	13.8	0.76	15.1	15.1	-0.05
Devin Harris	25	25	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.07	5	22	-17	14.5	14.0	0.49	16.8	14.6	2.25
Charlie Villanueva	25	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.08	5	22	-17	15.9	13.5	2.37	13.9	15.5	-1.66
Dwight Powell	11	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	16.5	13.8	2.74	12.8	15.4	-2.60
Raymond Felton	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	16.5	13.8	2.74	12.7	15.4	-2.69
Al-Farouq Aminu	11	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	16.5	13.8	2.74	12.8	15.4	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 90, PHX 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
MEM 94, UTA 118	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
OKC 91, SAS 130	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%