NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	8.5 [178]		MVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): +59.8%
Dallas Mavericks	99		Comeback	3.4 [618]		LVP	Boris Diaw (SAS): -35.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.06	0.00	4	87%	0.18	0	0.00	8	100%	0.07
Aron Baynes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.00	-0.01	-0.04	11	62%	0.15	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	8	61%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Ayres	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.04	0.00	15	41%	0.06	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.05
Austin Daye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.13,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	16	54%	0.28	5	-0.33	7	100%	0.09
Boris Diaw	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.21	-0.15	-0.01	16	25%	-0.20	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.28,0.48,0.57,0.6	0.60	0.25	0.36	0.01	23	73%	0.66	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.09
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.01	12	54%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.08	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	14	39%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Ricky Ledo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	15	48%	0.08	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.15	-0.11	-0.02	11	27%	-0.12	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	27.5	17.3	31.3	2.0	30.0	133.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +48.7%

SAS -33.5%

SAS -11.1%

DAL +41.3%

DAL +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	13.8	15.1	98.9	105.3	104.2
season	15.4	14.6		106.9	107.6
opponent	15.0	14.9		105.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	17.0	16.5	17.9	16.8
DAL	14.7	16.5	11.7	12.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Anderson	61	62	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.23	11	-17	28	16.5	17.4	-0.90	13.4	14.6	-1.16
Austin Daye	39	36	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-9	12	16.7	16.9	-0.15	13.1	14.3	-1.25
Matt Bonner	51	50	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-13	20	17.6	15.8	1.79	13.5	14.2	-0.62
Jeff Ayres	33	33	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-8	10	18.2	16.0	2.21	13.4	14.1	-0.72
Aron Baynes	61	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	2	-10	16.0	18.2	-2.21	14.1	13.4	0.72
Cory Joseph	79	79	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.33	-10	4	-14	17.3	14.1	3.18	14.3	11.2	3.13
Boris Diaw	70	71	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.27	-17	11	-28	16.7	17.0	-0.31	14.4	12.1	2.25
Marco Belinelli	76	78	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.32	-18	12	-30	16.1	19.8	-3.67	13.7	14.6	-0.88

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	68	66	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.27	18	-12	30	13.9	13.6	0.30	16.9	16.5	0.44
Chandler Parsons	76	77	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.27	16	-10	26	13.7	14.2	-0.49	16.6	17.7	-1.10
Tyson Chandler	69	69	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.32	13	-7	20	14.1	13.1	0.97	16.8	16.8	0.07
Monta Ellis	80	80	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-9	24	13.4	16.4	-2.97	16.6	18.0	-1.40
Dirk Nowitzki	67	67	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	2	2	13.3	15.2	-1.95	16.6	17.4	-0.89
Al-Farouq Aminu	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	4	-2	16.6	13.5	3.10	18.8	16.6	2.18
Charlie Villanueva	3	4	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	6	-6	7.3	14.0	-6.71	16.5	16.8	-0.32
Ricky Ledo	3	3	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	9	-12	21.3	13.6	7.75	24.7	16.5	8.12
Richard Jefferson	21	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	12	-18	15.7	13.3	2.43	15.9	17.1	-1.16
Greg Smith	22	21	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	13	-20	13.9	13.8	0.10	16.8	16.8	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	8	8	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.09	-12	18	-30	17.1	13.5	3.60	18.0	16.7	1.30
Devin Harris	43	45	-0.29	0.80	-1.09	-0.00	-10	16	-26	12.9	14.6	-1.79	17.0	16.6	0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.26,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, HOU 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.38,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.29,0.67,0.92,1	91.3%
NYK 79, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.33,0.53,0.55,0.43,0.92,1	91.1%
GSW 84, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.55,0.61,0.45,0.73,1	91.0%