NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	82		Excitement	5.5 [705]		MVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): +16.9%
Toronto Raptors	95		Comeback	2.7 [681]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): -15.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.00	11	73%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	15	56%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Channing Frye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	6	25%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	13	45%	-0.02	4	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Victor Oladipo	-0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.06	0.04	12	50%	-0.02	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	0.00	6	83%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	65%	0.11	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	14	51%	-0.00	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	11	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	9	22%	-0.10	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	34.5	13.8	21.4	1.8	29.0	123.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +5.0%

ORL -0.1%

TOR +16.5%

TOR +27.7%

TOR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	17.2	15.1	88.2	108.0	104.2
season	14.9	15.6		100.4	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.3		106.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	13.8	16.0	14.9	14.7
TOR	15.9	17.0	17.5	18.7	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	43	41	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.13	10	-23	33	14.3	14.9	-0.57	17.9	16.7	1.24
Kyle O'Quinn	37	32	0.12	-0.61	0.73	-0.06	6	-19	25	14.5	14.7	-0.19	18.0	16.8	1.15
Maurice Harkless	23	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-9	5	15.7	14.3	1.44	18.1	17.0	1.13
Elfrid Payton	25	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-7	1	15.6	14.3	1.35	17.5	17.1	0.38
Tobias Harris	71	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-2	-9	14.3	15.7	-1.34	17.0	18.0	-0.94
Nikola Vucevic	66	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	-5	-3	14.4	15.3	-0.95	17.5	16.4	1.15
Victor Oladipo	72	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	-1	-11	14.4	15.4	-1.00	16.9	18.4	-1.51
Channing Frye	70	66	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.04	-18	5	-23	14.7	14.4	0.35	16.4	19.7	-3.32
Evan Fournier	58	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.00	-22	9	-31	15.0	14.1	0.87	17.2	17.3	-0.12

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	61	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-2	17	16.9	18.1	-1.26	14.7	14.5	0.16
James Johnson	37	40	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	4	5	17.9	16.7	1.17	14.7	14.6	0.03
Tyler Hansbrough	43	48	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	2	9	17.8	16.7	1.08	15.1	14.2	0.97
Terrence Ross	42	43	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.07	14	-1	15	16.0	18.4	-2.37	14.9	14.4	0.51
Lou Williams	50	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	5	3	17.4	17.1	0.33	14.8	14.5	0.26
Amir Johnson	38	41	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	2	9	15.8	18.3	-2.55	14.6	14.7	-0.08
Patrick Patterson	50	52	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	11	-9	18.3	15.8	2.55	14.7	14.6	0.08
Jonas Valanciunas	45	45	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.03	2	11	-9	16.7	17.8	-1.08	14.2	15.1	-0.97
Landry Fields	41	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	10	-7	17.2	17.3	-0.13	15.0	14.4	0.67
Greivis Vasquez	33	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.18	-10	23	-33	18.6	16.4	2.24	13.6	15.3	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 93, OKC 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.85,0.89,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.4%
MIL 80, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.89,0.97,0.99,1	92.9%
POR 101, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.94,1,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%