NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	80		Excitement	6.8 [354]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (MIL): +19.4%
New York Knicks	89		Comeback	3.0 [549]		LVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): -34.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.20	-0.02	-0.02	14	84%	0.23	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.06
Beno Udrih	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Ekpe Udoh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	9	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.13,-0.17,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.23	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	22	31%	-0.12	5	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.34	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.28,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.23	-0.11	-0.00	14	14%	-0.24	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	20	54%	0.14	3	-0.08	12	100%	0.09
Iman Shumpert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	8	69%	0.15	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.06	1	-0.01	9	78%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Harrellson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.00	13	32%	-0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.05	-0.01	12	43%	-0.01	9	-0.22	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	33.3	17.0	30.3	2.6	33.0	143.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +7.3%

NYK +28.3%

NYK +21.9%

MIL -5.7%

MIL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NYK	NBA	MIL	NYK	NBA
this game	13.2	15.5	15.6	80.0	88.1	102.8
season	14.6	14.9		103.8	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		100.2	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.5	13.8	12.6	12.7	13.2
NYK	12.7	15.6	17.4	16.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	61	62	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-13	17	13.0	13.4	-0.31	16.6	13.7	2.82
Ekpe Udoh	46	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-9	9	13.0	13.3	-0.31	15.2	15.7	-0.56
Carlos Delfino	31	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.13	-7	-2	-5	14.3	12.7	1.67	13.4	16.3	-2.90
Mike Dunleavy	61	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.43	11	-20	31	12.9	13.6	-0.73	17.1	12.7	4.43
Drew Gooden	45	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-3	-3	13.2	13.2	-0.03	15.6	15.4	0.23
Shaun Livingston	19	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-6	3	12.6	13.3	-0.66	15.9	15.4	0.52
Beno Udrih	43	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-9	9	13.5	12.9	0.64	15.3	15.6	-0.24
Monta Ellis	79	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	0	-9	12.9	14.2	-1.35	15.1	16.9	-1.74
Ersan Ilyasova	41	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.04	-19	10	-29	13.6	12.9	0.66	14.2	16.4	-2.24
Brandon Jennings	74	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.06	-16	7	-23	13.1	13.2	-0.08	15.2	16.3	-1.07

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	71	72	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.12	16	-7	23	15.5	15.5	-0.08	13.6	12.2	1.38
Tyson Chandler	73	72	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.04	17	-8	25	15.3	15.9	-0.53	13.3	12.7	0.63
Iman Shumpert	76	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-4	17	14.7	17.7	-2.98	13.2	13.1	0.12
J.R. Smith	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	4	1	16.0	14.7	1.28	13.0	13.4	-0.35
Carmelo Anthony	74	73	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	-1	11	15.4	15.7	-0.31	12.9	13.9	-0.98
Steve Novak	48	48	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	9	-9	16.0	15.0	0.92	13.2	13.2	-0.01
Landry Fields	52	50	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	8	-7	14.5	16.5	-2.01	13.5	12.9	0.58
Josh Harrellson	27	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.21	-8	17	-25	16.4	15.1	1.32	12.9	13.3	-0.39
Mike Bibby	23	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	18	-27	17.4	14.9	2.54	12.2	13.4	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.89,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 92, MEM 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	93.4%
POR 101, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.94,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%
ORL 82, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%