NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	6.0 [632]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +8.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	100		Comeback	3.3 [728]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (DEN): -13.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	12	83%	0.03
Randy Foye	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.02	0.06	13	66%	0.08	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.04	10	52%	0.01	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	57%	0.14	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
Quincy Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jan Vesely	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.05	-0.06	9	29%	0.00	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Evan Fournier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	13	42%	-0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08	0.08	-0.06	0.08	-0.06	22	40%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.05	-0.02	7	59%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	14	54%	0.09	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.04
Nick Calathes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	3	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	16	57%	0.11	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	4	42%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
James Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	20%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.4	37.0	16.7	29.2	2.8	44.3	157.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +15.9%

MEM +13.2%

DEN -7.5%

MEM +23.5%

MEM +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	12.8	16.5	15.1	93.9	101.0	105.2
season	14.0	16.4		104.5	104.5
opponent	15.2	14.9		103.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	10.2	14.1	12.7	12.8
MEM	16.0	20.6	14.7	14.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	40	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-13	18	11.6	13.6	-1.93	18.2	15.3	2.85
Darrell Arthur	49	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.33	7	-15	22	12.2	13.4	-1.20	16.5	16.4	0.11
Ty Lawson	63	64	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.36	7	-15	22	12.6	13.1	-0.45	17.4	14.7	2.69
Timofey Mozgov	58	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-4	0	11.5	14.6	-3.06	16.4	16.6	-0.18
Kenneth Faried	47	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-1	-6	14.4	11.2	3.23	16.5	16.5	0.00
Quincy Miller	27	27	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.17	-17	9	-26	14.9	12.0	2.88	14.5	17.2	-2.71
Randy Foye	83	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	3	-14	12.5	14.1	-1.62	15.9	19.2	-3.36
Jan Vesely	42	41	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.07	-12	4	-16	13.3	12.4	0.95	16.5	16.4	0.06
Aaron Brooks	81	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	0	-8	13.0	11.6	1.42	16.1	18.4	-2.30

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	86	85	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.16	17	-9	26	15.9	19.8	-3.90	13.2	10.0	3.19
Courtney Lee	79	79	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-3	14	16.2	17.4	-1.18	13.2	10.9	2.26
Nick Calathes	34	35	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	3	2	16.2	16.6	-0.38	13.9	12.2	1.70
Kosta Koufos	20	21	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	5	-2	15.1	16.8	-1.63	17.9	11.4	6.54
Mike Conley	77	74	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	0	8	16.2	17.4	-1.23	11.8	15.7	-3.95
Tony Allen	44	42	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	11	-14	16.1	16.7	-0.57	12.4	13.1	-0.71
Marc Gasol	76	75	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	6	-4	17.0	14.7	2.23	11.5	16.8	-5.31
James Johnson	3	3	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	4	0	19.7	16.4	3.31	10.3	12.8	-2.51
Tayshaun Prince	28	28	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	5	-2	16.7	16.3	0.41	13.3	12.5	0.78
Mike Miller	35	36	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	11	-14	17.4	15.9	1.46	12.4	13.0	-0.55
Ed Davis	13	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	15	-22	19.7	16.0	3.73	10.2	13.1	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 80, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.89,0.97,0.99,1	93.4%
NJN 86, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
CHI 87, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	92.5%