NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	5.2 [765]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +19.2%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.0 [966]		LVP	Cameron Bairstow (CHI): -10.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.04	9	74%	0.14	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05	0.17	-0.04	0.08	13	70%	0.10	2	-0.05	20	90%	0.04
Aaron Brooks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	12	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	20	51%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Doug McDermott	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	10	50%	0.04	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Bairstow	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.05	0.01	11	79%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.01	9	65%	0.09	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	16	51%	0.12	4	-0.08	7	71%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	61%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	11	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	29.4	15.5	25.4	2.5	41.4	140.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.2%

CHI -7.6%

DEN +14.2%

DEN +4.1%

CHI -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	15.1	112.4	120.0	104.2
season	15.5	14.6		105.4	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		106.6	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	15.4	17.8	13.0	15.5
DEN	14.2	14.0	12.7	17.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Snell	1	0	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-3	1	1.0	15.6	-14.65	0.0	14.5	-14.49
Nazr Mohammed	23	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-5	5	14.9	15.7	-0.76	15.5	14.2	1.37
Doug McDermott	21	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-5	5	15.4	15.5	-0.08	15.0	14.3	0.70
Aaron Brooks	48	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.44	12	-17	29	14.6	16.4	-1.76	15.2	13.8	1.34
Nikola Mirotic	44	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.11	-1	-4	3	15.6	15.4	0.13	13.9	15.0	-1.13
Derrick Rose	20	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	3	-11	15.9	15.4	0.57	14.2	14.6	-0.39
Kirk Hinrich	62	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	15.2	15.9	-0.70	15.1	13.4	1.73
Cameron Bairstow	35	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	8	-21	18.1	14.0	4.01	14.3	14.6	-0.30
Mike Dunleavy	74	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	15.2	16.4	-1.18	14.5	14.6	-0.16
Pau Gasol	74	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	0	-5	15.7	14.9	0.76	14.2	15.5	-1.37
Jimmy Butler	83	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	2	-9	15.4	16.0	-0.59	14.0	17.1	-3.05

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	66	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-6	17	13.6	16.4	-2.81	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Ty Lawson	72	73	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	-1	7	14.3	15.2	-0.95	15.0	17.1	-2.11
Timofey Mozgov	53	55	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	1	3	14.6	14.3	0.33	16.3	14.4	1.88
Danilo Gallinari	57	60	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.40	-1	6	-7	14.9	13.8	1.09	14.5	17.1	-2.52
Wilson Chandler	57	57	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	-2	9	14.1	15.2	-1.11	15.9	14.9	1.01
Kenneth Faried	46	45	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	-3	11	14.5	14.5	-0.07	17.0	14.2	2.77
Darrell Arthur	27	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	5	-5	13.9	14.7	-0.79	15.0	15.7	-0.66
Alonzo Gee	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.27	-5	10	-15	17.0	13.7	3.30	13.0	16.3	-3.26
Nate Robinson	24	25	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	6	-7	15.6	14.1	1.46	16.4	15.2	1.27
JJ Hickson	38	38	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	6	-7	14.6	14.5	0.10	15.7	15.3	0.40
Gary Harris	11	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	8	-11	14.1	14.5	-0.46	16.2	15.4	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 83, NOK 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.92,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1	96.0%
IND 79, WAS 84	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
WAS 82, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.87,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%