NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	3.2 [1131]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +12.8%
New York Knicks	109		Comeback	1.7 [651]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -15.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.00	0.03	11	78%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Danilo Gallinari	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.02	0.09	9	70%	0.01	2	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Timofey Mozgov	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	14	39%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	7	71%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	18	40%	-0.04	6	-0.11	6	50%	-0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.04	16	70%	0.08	5	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.00	0.07	14	78%	0.12	5	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	8	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	62%	0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Wear	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.8	37.0	15.8	21.3	2.5	33.5	138.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +33.5%

NYK +1.8%

NYK +6.3%

NYK +7.9%

NYK +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NYK	NBA	DEN	NYK	NBA
this game	13.5	15.9	15.1	95.9	110.1	104.2
season	14.6	16.1		103.4	98.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		108.3	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	12.2	15.7	12.1	13.5
NYK	14.0	14.4	18.6	17.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	62	66	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.26	8	-24	32	13.6	13.2	0.35	16.4	14.9	1.50
JJ Hickson	21	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.22	5	-21	26	12.2	13.8	-1.55	18.7	15.0	3.64
Nate Robinson	22	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	-8	0	13.9	13.3	0.59	15.3	16.1	-0.70
Wilson Chandler	63	63	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.10	-2	-14	12	14.0	12.4	1.60	15.7	16.3	-0.62
Kenneth Faried	64	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-16	16	13.7	13.0	0.69	16.0	15.6	0.42
Alonzo Gee	18	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.18	-13	-3	-10	12.9	13.6	-0.69	16.2	15.8	0.39
JaVale McGee	13	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-8	0	13.2	13.5	-0.26	14.8	16.1	-1.22
Timofey Mozgov	47	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.15	-12	-4	-8	14.5	12.4	2.09	14.8	16.9	-2.14
Danilo Gallinari	28	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-8	0	13.1	13.6	-0.44	16.4	15.7	0.71
Darrell Arthur	44	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	-1	-14	12.5	14.3	-1.83	15.8	16.0	-0.16
Ty Lawson	80	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-6	-4	13.4	13.6	-0.23	16.0	15.5	0.49
Gary Harris	23	23	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.14	-17	1	-18	12.4	13.8	-1.39	14.2	16.4	-2.20

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	79	77	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.12	21	-5	26	15.9	15.9	-0.05	13.4	13.8	-0.44
J.R. Smith	75	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.14	19	-3	22	15.8	16.2	-0.39	13.8	12.5	1.32
Jason Smith	44	40	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.03	14	2	12	14.7	16.9	-2.13	13.4	13.5	-0.13
Samuel Dalembert	45	45	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.13	16	0	16	16.2	15.7	0.53	14.1	12.9	1.19
Pablo Prigioni	51	49	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	11	-6	15.3	16.5	-1.19	11.9	15.0	-3.10
Shane Larkin	50	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	10	-4	16.5	15.3	1.15	14.8	11.9	2.89
Amar'e Stoudemire	42	41	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.14	2	14	-12	15.4	16.3	-0.83	13.2	13.6	-0.41
Tim Hardaway Jr.	23	23	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	13	-10	16.1	15.8	0.29	12.8	13.6	-0.82
Quincy Acy	62	63	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	19	-22	16.9	14.2	2.66	13.4	13.6	-0.16
Travis Wear	24	23	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	16.0	15.9	0.06	13.0	13.6	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, PHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.4%
DEN 91, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
DET 87, WAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%