NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	4.3 [952]		MVP	Shawne Williams (MIA): +17.9%
Atlanta Hawks	114		Comeback	1.0 [997]		LVP	Shabazz Napier (MIA): -11.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawne Williams	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.02	0.03	11	95%	0.19	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.02	0.05	12	61%	0.09	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.00	0.06	11	77%	0.09	3	-0.03	8	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Ennis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shannon Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	19	45%	0.04	4	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	5	120%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.03	0.04	10	86%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.01	8	58%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.02	7	86%	0.13	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	15	53%	0.11	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	67%	0.07	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	45%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Muscala	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04	11	59%	0.05	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	27.4	15.4	23.3	1.8	30.2	127.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +40.5%

ATL +3.5%

ATL +2.3%

ATL +4.1%

MIA -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.5	14.5	15.1	112.0	121.3	104.2
season	16.0	14.9		102.4	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.8	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	17.7	17.3	14.2	16.5
ATL	12.9	13.6	15.5	15.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	62	63	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-14	17	16.1	17.3	-1.15	15.1	13.2	1.90
Chris Andersen	12	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-13	15	19.4	16.1	3.33	14.1	14.5	-0.45
Mario Chalmers	75	77	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-21	31	16.4	16.9	-0.51	14.8	12.8	2.01
Norris Cole	56	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-6	1	14.6	19.5	-4.85	14.7	14.1	0.56
James Ennis	12	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.13	-11	0	-11	16.7	16.5	0.17	15.0	14.4	0.61
Luol Deng	69	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-7	3	15.9	18.3	-2.32	14.5	14.3	0.18
Udonis Haslem	34	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-6	1	17.6	15.9	1.65	14.9	14.2	0.68
Shabazz Napier	38	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	19.3	14.5	4.81	14.3	14.6	-0.24
Shannon Brown	26	27	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	4	-19	18.2	15.8	2.38	12.8	15.1	-2.32
Chris Bosh	76	76	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.05	-22	11	-33	15.9	19.4	-3.53	13.8	17.2	-3.41

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	75	74	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.05	17	-6	23	13.8	17.2	-3.37	15.9	19.0	-3.08
Al Horford	57	56	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-3	17	14.3	14.8	-0.52	16.5	16.6	-0.15
Mike Scott	34	32	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	-1	13	13.6	15.0	-1.42	18.1	15.7	2.36
Shelvin Mack	33	31	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	2	7	14.2	14.6	-0.35	18.4	15.6	2.86
Thabo Sefolosha	63	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	9	-7	14.8	13.8	0.99	16.0	17.7	-1.66
Dennis Schroder	47	45	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	7	-3	14.9	14.1	0.77	18.6	14.6	3.98
Jeff Teague	64	63	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	10	-9	14.8	13.8	0.98	15.4	19.0	-3.67
Paul Millsap	67	66	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.12	2	9	-7	14.9	13.3	1.64	15.6	18.8	-3.24
Mike Muscala	8	8	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	9	-7	13.1	14.6	-1.47	12.9	16.9	-3.99
Pero Antic	22	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.12	-8	19	-27	15.5	14.2	1.29	18.5	15.9	2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, ORL 103	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
CHA 94, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
MIN 88, NOP 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.75,0.68,0.74,0.64,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.78,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%