NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	8.3 [199]		MVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): +28.2%
Toronto Raptors	104		Comeback	8.9 [367]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): -17.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.31,0.19,0.05	0.10	-0.05	0.00	18	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Channing Frye	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.04	0.02	15	63%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03	0.09	-0.07	-0.01	16	62%	0.14	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	16	49%	0.11	6	-0.24	5	40%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.16	0.00	5	100%	0.28	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.05
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.11	0.04	8	81%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	8	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	70%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	15	41%	0.04	0	0.00	9	89%	0.08
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.12	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.05
Tyler Hansbrough	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.12	1	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	5	29%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	8	22%	-0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	30.4	15.6	26.8	1.7	35.5	135.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +11.5%

TOR +33.5%

ORL -8.3%

TOR +12.6%

TOR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	15.1	104.2	106.1	104.2
season	14.9	15.6		100.4	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.3		106.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	14.0	14.5	17.4	15.1
TOR	14.9	14.8	15.5	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	36	37	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-8	12	14.6	15.3	-0.71	16.1	13.8	2.27
Dewayne Dedmon	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-4	4	12.1	15.3	-3.14	14.7	14.6	0.08
Tobias Harris	76	78	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.36	9	-13	22	15.2	14.5	0.70	14.8	14.2	0.56
Nikola Vucevic	80	82	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.36	7	-11	18	15.4	13.4	1.94	14.9	13.6	1.29
Evan Fournier	76	79	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.33	4	-8	12	15.1	15.0	0.07	14.8	13.9	0.93
Ben Gordon	20	19	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	4	-12	15.0	15.1	-0.07	13.9	14.8	-0.93
Maurice Harkless	18	18	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	7	-18	14.4	15.2	-0.75	13.6	14.9	-1.26
Aaron Gordon	22	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	9	-22	14.5	15.2	-0.78	13.2	15.1	-1.86
Channing Frye	85	86	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.41	-4	0	-4	15.1	14.4	0.78	14.9	12.6	2.35
Luke Ridnour	60	61	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.40	-8	4	-12	15.3	14.6	0.71	13.8	16.1	-2.27

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	46	44	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-9	22	13.5	15.6	-2.11	15.3	14.9	0.41
Patrick Patterson	61	61	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-6	16	13.2	17.0	-3.79	15.4	14.4	1.07
Terrence Ross	56	55	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.53	-2	6	-8	15.0	14.1	0.92	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Kyle Lowry	72	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	3	-2	15.2	13.1	2.08	15.4	14.0	1.39
Tyler Hansbrough	38	37	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-5	14	13.2	15.5	-2.34	14.8	15.2	-0.48
DeMar DeRozan	65	64	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.35	-3	7	-10	15.3	13.3	1.97	15.4	14.4	1.02
Greivis Vasquez	35	34	0.06	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	0	4	12.7	15.7	-3.04	14.6	15.3	-0.72
Lou Williams	32	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.14	3	1	2	14.0	14.9	-0.91	14.8	15.2	-0.31
Amir Johnson	44	42	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	9	-14	16.6	13.0	3.58	15.0	15.1	-0.18
Jonas Valanciunas	41	40	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.09	-10	14	-24	16.8	13.1	3.76	14.1	15.7	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.34,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.54,0.4,0.25,0.45,0.32,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.3,0.34,0.58,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.55,0.72,1	92.0%
PHI 94, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.72,1	91.5%
CHI 84, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.49,0.32,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.57,0.82,1	90.9%