NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	5.6 [692]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +25.3%
Chicago Bulls	102		Comeback	1.0 [1220]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -20.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.15	0.05	0.08	-0.02	8	64%	0.19	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.02
Caron Butler	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.05	-0.02	6	69%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	41%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	15	53%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	11	42%	0.00	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	0.01	-0.02	5	14%	-0.06	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Smith	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.04	-0.12	0.05	19	46%	-0.11	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.11	-0.02	12	70%	0.28	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.07	-0.04	17	47%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	20	53%	0.08	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	41%	-0.00	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	13	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.8	28.0	15.5	26.2	1.8	33.2	129.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +14.6%

CHI +9.4%

CHI +5.9%

CHI +14.6%

CHI +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	15.3	15.1	94.8	104.1	104.2
season	15.7	15.5		104.0	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.5	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.8	15.2	15.0	12.4	14.3
CHI	14.6	13.6	17.8	15.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	53	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-11	11	14.1	14.7	-0.62	15.9	14.6	1.29
Caron Butler	54	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-12	13	13.4	15.5	-2.16	15.6	15.1	0.48
Greg Monroe	73	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-7	3	14.9	12.4	2.50	15.2	15.9	-0.73
Andre Drummond	70	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-7	3	14.6	13.5	1.09	15.6	14.5	1.18
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	57	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-1	-9	14.9	13.6	1.30	15.6	15.0	0.51
D.J. Augustin	43	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	0	-11	14.7	14.1	0.62	14.6	15.9	-1.29
Kyle Singler	52	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	1	-13	13.8	15.0	-1.15	15.0	15.8	-0.86
Josh Smith	78	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.11	-15	4	-19	14.1	15.2	-1.09	15.2	15.9	-0.68

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	71	71	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.07	20	-9	29	15.1	15.9	-0.75	14.5	14.0	0.45
Jimmy Butler	87	85	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-1	13	15.8	12.0	3.77	14.1	16.5	-2.40
Pau Gasol	72	70	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-3	17	15.4	15.1	0.37	14.1	14.9	-0.76
Derrick Rose	67	66	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-3	17	14.8	16.5	-1.66	14.5	14.0	0.53
Joakim Noah	66	65	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	-3	17	14.8	16.4	-1.62	14.4	14.1	0.35
Taj Gibson	47	46	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.27	-5	16	-21	16.7	14.1	2.64	14.0	14.7	-0.68
Nikola Mirotic	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	12	-13	12.0	15.8	-3.77	16.5	14.1	2.40
Doug McDermott	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	12	-13	12.0	15.8	-3.77	16.5	14.1	2.40
Aaron Brooks	24	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.10	-5	16	-21	14.9	15.5	-0.57	13.4	14.6	-1.18
Kirk Hinrich	34	32	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	18	-25	17.1	14.4	2.71	14.4	14.3	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.71,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 74, BOS 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.9,1	94.4%
CHI 107, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.96,0.91,1	94.4%
DET 101, BKN 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.96,1	94.3%