NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	4.3 [962]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +23.1%
Chicago Bulls	108		Comeback	1.0 [1260]		LVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): -14.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Nicholson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.20	0.04	0.06	9	106%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	7	81%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kyle O'Quinn	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	11	83%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
E'Twaun Moore	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	38%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Doron Lamb	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	6	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.00	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Victor Oladipo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	12	16%	-0.11	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.08	0.02	11	85%	0.25	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	5	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	8	72%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	16	49%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	11	54%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	5	44%	0.03	2	-0.01	8	75%	0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	14	57%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	31.5	17.7	25.2	1.7	27.2	128.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +10.0%

CHI +11.6%

CHI +1.8%

CHI +27.2%

ORL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.9	15.7	15.1	100.0	116.1	105.2
season	15.3	16.3		100.4	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.0		99.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	14.3	15.9	14.1	14.9
CHI	17.1	13.4	16.1	16.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	47	44	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-16	19	15.8	14.1	1.73	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Arron Afflalo	45	42	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-16	19	15.7	14.3	1.43	15.5	15.9	-0.34
Kyle O'Quinn	56	55	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.24	9	-22	31	14.9	14.9	0.02	15.8	15.6	0.18
Maurice Harkless	53	51	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-17	21	15.7	13.9	1.81	15.7	15.8	-0.10
Dewayne Dedmon	53	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-5	-3	15.6	14.1	1.51	16.3	14.9	1.46
Andrew Nicholson	45	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-4	-5	14.5	15.3	-0.81	14.8	16.5	-1.62
Tobias Harris	36	35	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	5	-23	14.5	15.2	-0.75	15.7	15.7	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	42	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	4	-21	13.9	15.7	-1.81	15.8	15.7	0.10
Doron Lamb	50	51	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.10	-16	3	-19	14.3	15.7	-1.43	15.9	15.5	0.34
Ronnie Price	48	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.11	-16	3	-19	14.1	15.8	-1.73	15.8	15.6	0.23

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmer Fredette	61	63	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.06	18	-5	23	15.2	16.6	-1.35	14.2	16.4	-2.17
Taj Gibson	38	40	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.11	18	-5	23	15.7	15.7	0.00	14.6	15.2	-0.58
Mike Dunleavy	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	-1	15	16.2	13.8	2.33	15.5	12.8	2.64
Jimmy Butler	59	61	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	4	5	15.9	15.3	0.61	15.8	13.4	2.33
Carlos Boozer	60	62	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	9	-5	16.0	15.1	0.91	15.0	14.8	0.23
Tony Snell	37	38	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	7	-1	15.5	15.9	-0.42	13.9	15.6	-1.74
Joakim Noah	70	72	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	3	7	16.1	14.6	1.46	15.4	13.5	1.92
Nazr Mohammed	15	14	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	14	-15	13.2	16.2	-2.99	14.1	15.1	-0.93
Lou Amundson	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	13.3	15.8	-2.46	8.0	15.1	-7.09
Ronnie Brewer	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	14.4	15.8	-1.38	10.8	15.2	-4.37
Kirk Hinrich	42	43	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	16	-19	15.6	15.8	-0.12	15.3	14.7	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 108, WAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.87,0.84,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,1	95.6%
CHI 78, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.76,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CLE 103, GSW 122	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.86,0.84,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%