NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	112		Excitement	3.9 [1040]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +14.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	95		Comeback	1.2 [1136]		LVP	Jodie Meeks (LAL): -10.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.02	-0.04	20	71%	0.20	6	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	9	72%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	11	67%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Hilton Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	12	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	9	44%	0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	0.06	15	46%	-0.05	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Marshall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Robert Sacre	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.12	-0.01	0.13	20	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Kelly	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.05	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	18	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	11	37%	0.02	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	12	31%	-0.07	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.7	24.3	16.4	27.4	1.7	25.6	118.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +42.9%

LAL -3.4%

GSW +12.6%

LAL -2.0%

LAL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	13.4	13.9	15.1	106.7	89.6	105.2
season	14.2	14.0		105.9	102.9
opponent	14.8	15.3		108.9	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.7	13.7	14.1	13.3	13.4
LAL	13.0	18.2	11.2	13.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	67	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	-1	19	13.7	12.9	0.75	14.1	13.5	0.64
Stephen Curry	77	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	4	9	14.0	11.9	2.14	12.9	16.3	-3.41
Klay Thompson	79	80	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	4	9	13.5	13.2	0.31	14.1	13.1	1.00
Andrew Bogut	52	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	7	3	13.5	13.3	0.18	13.5	14.3	-0.80
David Lee	57	59	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.27	19	-2	21	13.2	13.7	-0.44	13.3	14.6	-1.23
Steve Blake	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	6	5	13.3	13.7	-0.40	13.8	13.9	-0.13
Marreese Speights	48	49	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	15	-13	13.0	13.8	-0.79	14.8	13.1	1.65
Harrison Barnes	47	48	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.23	-3	20	-23	13.7	13.2	0.57	13.5	14.2	-0.63
Jordan Crawford	30	31	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	15	-13	12.1	13.9	-1.81	15.9	13.0	2.92
Hilton Armstrong	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	6.0	13.5	-7.50	16.0	13.8	2.15

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Marshall	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-14	11	14.4	13.5	0.89	13.6	13.3	0.30
Robert Sacre	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-11	5	14.5	13.5	1.01	13.5	13.4	0.14
Nick Young	66	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-9	1	14.2	13.3	0.83	13.4	13.5	-0.13
Wesley Johnson	67	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-8	-1	12.5	16.2	-3.70	13.8	12.7	1.08
Ryan Kelly	85	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	-7	-3	13.1	16.9	-3.79	13.7	12.2	1.52
Jordan Farmar	65	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.05	-14	-3	-11	13.5	14.4	-0.89	13.3	13.6	-0.30
Jodie Meeks	75	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.03	-15	-2	-13	14.5	12.3	2.18	12.9	14.7	-1.77
Jordan Hill	90	89	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.10	-20	3	-23	14.5	10.1	4.48	13.3	14.3	-1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, MIN 71	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
PHI 98, ATL 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.2%
ATL 108, NJN 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%