NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	6.4 [540]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (MIA): +28.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	107		Comeback	3.5 [503]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -15.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.17	0.13	0.02	8	89%	0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
LeBron James	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.09	0.02	23	70%	0.38	5	-0.15	7	86%	0.02
Justin Hamilton	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	6	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.03	0.05	10	55%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	4	37%	-0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	14	46%	-0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	-0.00	-0.03	15	81%	0.22	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.07	0.01	18	65%	0.24	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.11	0.00	16	51%	0.19	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.02	11	78%	0.20	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Nick Calathes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	43%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.7	31.2	17.7	31.7	3.6	38.4	150.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +22.6%

MIA -2.0%

MEM +21.9%

MEM +11.6%

MIA -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	17.0	15.7	15.1	115.9	121.6	105.2
season	15.6	16.4		109.7	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.8		103.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	18.5	16.3	17.1	17.0
MEM	15.8	15.8	14.9	16.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toney Douglas	30	31	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.00	6	-11	17	17.4	16.8	0.64	16.8	15.1	1.63
Shane Battier	44	44	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-6	7	17.2	16.9	0.30	15.7	15.8	-0.11
Mario Chalmers	65	65	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.25	6	-11	17	17.3	16.2	1.07	16.1	14.7	1.32
Chris Bosh	63	65	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-8	11	16.8	17.5	-0.71	16.2	14.3	1.91
Justin Hamilton	25	23	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	3	-11	17.5	16.8	0.71	14.3	16.2	-1.91
Ray Allen	46	47	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	0	-5	16.4	17.7	-1.34	15.6	15.9	-0.35
LeBron James	77	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	3	-11	16.4	21.2	-4.77	15.5	17.4	-1.90
Rashard Lewis	44	43	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.43	-6	1	-7	16.9	17.2	-0.30	16.1	15.4	0.74
Norris Cole	46	44	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	9	-23	18.0	16.0	2.03	14.7	16.7	-2.02

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	45	46	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.33	16	-11	27	15.1	16.4	-1.33	16.5	17.6	-1.12
Mike Conley	77	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-4	13	15.7	15.8	-0.12	16.6	20.0	-3.42
Zach Randolph	78	79	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.34	7	-2	9	15.6	16.4	-0.77	16.7	20.0	-3.33
Marc Gasol	83	82	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.34	7	-2	9	15.8	14.8	0.97	16.8	19.3	-2.49
Courtney Lee	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-5	15	15.1	17.9	-2.80	16.6	18.7	-2.13
Nick Calathes	14	14	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	5	-5	16.4	15.6	0.85	20.0	16.4	3.55
Kosta Koufos	5	6	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	7	-9	14.8	15.8	-0.97	19.3	16.8	2.49
Ed Davis	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	7	-9	18.0	15.5	2.54	20.0	16.7	3.33
Mike Miller	15	16	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	14	-23	17.8	15.3	2.51	18.4	16.7	1.74
James Johnson	44	42	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	16	-27	16.1	15.4	0.70	17.6	16.5	1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.28,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.9,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 79, ATL 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.37,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.87,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.96,1	94.1%
IND 102, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.34,0.4,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.2%
LAC 98, NOP 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.24,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1	93.0%