NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	9.0 [135]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +33.5%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	12.3 [73]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -39.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.33	0.12	0.22	0.00	10	75%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	7	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Greg Oden	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.01	16	57%	0.09	4	-0.16	12	92%	0.12
Shane Battier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	4	60%	0.09	5	-0.20	7	100%	0.07
LeBron James	-0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.34,-0.22,-0.34,-0.34,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.14	-0.27	-0.01	23	37%	-0.31	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.16	0.11	0.00	13	79%	0.29	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.08	0.07	-0.01	11	50%	0.12	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	11	28%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.10
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	14	30%	-0.11	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	-0.00	15	44%	0.05	2	-0.21	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.6	3.0	30.0	17.8	30.1	2.7	40.0	1.4	13.4	165.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +46.0%

MIA -28.1%

CHI +31.2%

CHI +9.3%

MIA -8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.4	18.0	15.1	91.7	100.0	105.2
season	15.6	16.3		109.7	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.8		99.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.0	14.8	14.4	17.6	14.5	15.4
CHI	17.1	21.2	16.9	15.1	23.0	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	63	57	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.01	2	-9	11	15.6	14.9	0.72	18.5	17.1	1.42
Shane Battier	19	20	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-8	9	12.3	16.1	-3.79	17.0	18.2	-1.21
LeBron James	84	83	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-13	19	14.6	20.9	-6.36	18.0	17.9	0.05
Mario Chalmers	69	68	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.25	5	-12	17	14.1	18.5	-4.35	18.5	16.5	2.06
Michael Beasley	27	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.14	-10	3	-13	18.6	14.1	4.56	16.1	18.7	-2.54
Norris Cole	32	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	0	-7	16.7	14.7	2.09	17.4	18.2	-0.85
Chris Bosh	69	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-10	13	14.1	18.6	-4.56	18.7	16.1	2.54
Greg Oden	12	14	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	5	-17	19.8	14.7	5.12	17.4	18.0	-0.62
Ray Allen	35	36	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	5	-17	18.0	13.8	4.16	16.2	19.0	-2.79
Dwyane Wade	70	71	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.40	-11	4	-15	15.4	15.3	0.12	18.4	16.5	1.89

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	55	54	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.36	14	-7	21	17.2	19.0	-1.76	17.0	13.2	3.85
D.J. Augustin	64	65	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.31	9	-2	11	18.0	17.9	0.08	16.3	13.3	3.05
Joakim Noah	76	78	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.32	8	-1	9	18.2	17.0	1.20	14.8	17.8	-3.05
Kirk Hinrich	62	63	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	1	5	18.4	17.1	1.33	14.4	17.2	-2.83
Jimmy Butler	87	88	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	4	-1	17.8	19.9	-2.09	14.8	21.0	-6.16
Tony Snell	26	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.10	9	-2	11	17.0	18.3	-1.37	17.7	14.5	3.26
Nazr Mohammed	7	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	8	-9	21.9	17.6	4.21	19.3	15.1	4.24
Mike Dunleavy	46	46	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	13	-19	18.2	17.7	0.46	14.9	15.7	-0.81
Carlos Boozer	52	54	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	-0.11	-7	14	-21	17.9	18.1	-0.20	14.1	17.0	-2.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.25,0.35,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.17,0.28,0.42,0.6,0.4,0.55,0.37,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.68,0.77,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 109, MIA 116	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.38,0.78,0.78,0.42,0.46,0.81,0.64,0.91,0.98,1	90.0%
MIL 120, PHI 124	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.47,0.41,0.61,0.62,0.54,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.86,0.85,1	89.7%
NJN 88, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.37,0.43,0.73,0.46,0.74,0.84,0.78,1,1	88.7%