NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	6.9 [450]		MVP	Jerryd Bayless (BOS): +26.7%
Boston Celtics	115		Comeback	3.1 [546]		LVP	Mike Scott (ATL): -12.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.19	-0.00	0.03	11	86%	0.21	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.00
Kyle Korver	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.01	9	89%	0.16	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Louis Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.06	-0.03	13	43%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Jeff Teague	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	18	60%	0.13	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Dexter Pittman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	43%	-0.00	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Scott	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.09	-0.02	21	69%	0.28	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	-0.00	8	56%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	14	65%	0.12	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	15	53%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Phil Pressey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	11	54%	-0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Chris Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	7	31%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.6	29.3	16.3	22.7	2.4	34.5	131.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -4.7%

ATL -3.7%

BOS +38.5%

BOS +21.8%

ATL -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.1	15.3	15.1	106.1	117.3	105.2
season	14.8	15.4		103.8	101.2
opponent	15.0	15.3		106.0	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	16.1	13.8	12.3	14.1
BOS	12.9	12.8	17.5	18.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dexter Pittman	0	1	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-11	11	0.0	14.1	-14.12	30.0	15.1	14.89
Cartier Martin	12	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-10	9	14.0	14.1	-0.14	20.2	14.5	5.64
Jeff Teague	66	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.32	5	-16	21	13.9	14.7	-0.79	16.2	13.6	2.61
Dennis Schroder	36	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.18	-14	3	-17	14.3	14.0	0.29	13.8	16.2	-2.45
Mike Scott	38	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-1	-9	14.1	14.1	0.01	13.5	16.2	-2.72
Kyle Korver	64	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-7	3	13.6	15.0	-1.39	15.4	14.9	0.50
Elton Brand	69	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	14.1	14.2	-0.07	15.3	15.3	-0.04
DeMarre Carroll	77	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-7	3	14.2	14.0	0.16	15.1	16.0	-0.95
Louis Williams	67	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	3	-17	13.6	15.3	-1.71	15.1	15.7	-0.55
Shelvin Mack	61	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-5	-1	15.4	12.0	3.37	15.2	15.3	-0.04

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	69	68	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.04	25	-14	39	14.5	17.1	-2.56	13.7	15.0	-1.26
Jerryd Bayless	71	69	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	4	3	16.5	12.0	4.56	14.4	13.6	0.81
Rajon Rondo	72	74	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	2	7	15.2	15.3	-0.06	13.6	15.6	-1.93
Jeff Green	81	82	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	6	-1	15.2	15.6	-0.39	14.3	13.1	1.27
Chris Johnson	53	53	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	1	9	14.9	15.6	-0.70	14.2	14.1	0.06
Joel Anthony	19	17	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.07	9	2	7	12.6	15.9	-3.27	15.8	13.8	2.06
Kris Humphries	30	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	16	-21	18.7	13.7	5.00	13.9	14.2	-0.27
Phil Pressey	38	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	12	-13	14.7	15.6	-0.99	14.6	13.8	0.85
Brandon Bass	57	58	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	15	-19	14.5	16.3	-1.85	13.8	14.5	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.62,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.95,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, PHX 118	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.76,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
DET 99, MIN 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	92.6%
DAL 94, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.89,0.9,0.97,1	92.3%