NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	94		Excitement	8.0 [252]		MVP	Josh Smith (HOU): +14.8%
Houston Rockets	99		Comeback	2.2 [670]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (DAL): -29.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.12	0.13	-0.01	0.00	23	66%	0.21	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Chandler Parsons	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.04	0.10	-0.07	-0.01	13	81%	0.25	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	7	56%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jose Juan Barea	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Charlie Villanueva	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.20
Devin Harris	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.21	-0.11	-0.04	7	0%	-0.10	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	13	69%	0.19	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	65%	0.17	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.09	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	16	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	13	47%	0.03	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.00	9	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.01	14	55%	0.03	4	-0.17	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.3	28.4	15.0	23.1	2.3	44.4	138.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +33.0%

DAL -5.2%

DAL -5.6%

HOU +27.5%

HOU +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	13.7	15.1	94.9	99.0	104.2
season	14.6	14.3		107.6	105.6
opponent	14.9	15.0		103.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.9	15.0	14.9	15.1	15.2
HOU	11.8	13.2	14.5	15.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	65	63	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.36	10	-15	25	15.2	15.3	-0.03	14.7	12.0	2.76
Charlie Villanueva	17	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-3	1	12.6	15.8	-3.20	13.4	13.8	-0.43
Monta Ellis	79	79	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.33	6	-11	17	15.1	15.8	-0.70	14.2	12.0	2.16
Rajon Rondo	69	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-8	11	15.6	14.4	1.26	14.3	12.3	2.01
Chandler Parsons	73	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-8	11	15.5	14.7	0.80	14.2	12.6	1.58
Al-Farouq Aminu	62	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	14.8	16.0	-1.17	12.9	15.3	-2.42
Dwight Powell	19	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	6	-17	17.2	14.8	2.37	11.6	14.3	-2.65
Jose Juan Barea	20	21	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	6	-17	15.8	15.1	0.70	12.0	14.2	-2.16
Devin Harris	29	32	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	5	-15	14.6	15.5	-0.93	12.0	14.5	-2.51
Dirk Nowitzki	62	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	5	-15	15.5	14.9	0.60	14.0	13.2	0.87

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	0	5	14.1	12.8	1.34	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Josh Smith	61	59	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	1	3	12.8	15.1	-2.32	14.4	16.4	-2.03
Corey Brewer	54	51	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-4	13	12.6	15.0	-2.31	14.5	16.1	-1.63
Terrence Jones	43	42	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	2	1	13.8	13.6	0.14	15.8	14.8	1.03
Donatas Motiejunas	69	69	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.27	-1	6	-7	14.3	12.5	1.78	15.3	15.0	0.30
James Harden	76	76	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	7	-9	13.9	13.0	0.99	15.7	13.7	2.07
Jason Terry	39	37	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.09	11	-6	17	12.7	14.4	-1.67	15.1	15.4	-0.30
Patrick Beverley	60	62	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	9	-13	14.6	12.4	2.14	15.4	15.1	0.30
Joey Dorsey	27	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	5	-5	14.2	13.5	0.70	15.9	15.0	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.89,0.9,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 92, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.53,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.62,0.64,0.89,1,1	93.0%
PHI 94, ATL 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.65,0.78,0.68,0.77,0.85,0.93,1	92.5%
WAS 108, CLE 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.56,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.58,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.91,0.96,1	92.4%