NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	100		Excitement	6.2 [590]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +15.2%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	1.1 [867]		LVP	Randy Foye (DEN): -14.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.01,0.08,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.01	21	56%	0.26	3	-0.11	13	85%	0.05
Nicolas Batum	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.04	6	89%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	11	64%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	34%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
CJ McCollum	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	70%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.03	-0.03	13	28%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.03
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	12	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	15	47%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	16	42%	-0.04	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	0.07	15	53%	-0.01	4	-0.13	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.2	29.6	15.6	26.2	1.7	36.4	137.7
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +37.8%

POR +21.2%

DEN -22.9%

POR +13.8%

POR +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.1	102.0	97.9	105.2
season	15.1	14.0		109.6	104.5
opponent	14.9	14.8		106.4	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.4	14.6	16.2	12.6	14.4
DEN	16.9	14.2	16.5	13.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	56	57	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-11	27	13.7	15.2	-1.52	15.6	14.6	0.98
Damian Lillard	75	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-13	31	13.7	16.5	-2.76	15.9	12.8	3.11
Nicolas Batum	78	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.18	15	-10	25	13.8	16.4	-2.55	15.9	12.3	3.62
Robin Lopez	80	80	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-2	9	13.9	16.2	-2.27	14.8	16.8	-1.93
Wesley Matthews	72	71	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	2	1	13.9	15.6	-1.65	14.3	17.6	-3.33
Thomas Robinson	26	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	8	-11	16.6	13.6	3.01	16.2	14.8	1.44
Victor Claver	25	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	11	-17	15.4	14.0	1.39	14.5	15.4	-0.81
Mo Williams	51	50	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.18	-9	14	-23	15.0	13.7	1.24	15.4	14.9	0.46
Will Barton	15	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	13	-21	16.7	14.0	2.71	13.3	15.5	-2.21
CJ McCollum	12	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.12	-8	13	-21	17.9	13.9	4.04	11.9	15.6	-3.72

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jan Vesely	24	25	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.17	9	-14	23	13.9	15.6	-1.73	15.5	14.0	1.55
Quincy Miller	49	50	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.45	15	-20	35	13.8	16.6	-2.79	14.0	14.7	-0.67
Evan Fournier	63	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.46	10	-15	25	14.7	16.0	-1.27	14.6	13.9	0.65
JJ Hickson	63	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.38	6	-11	17	14.9	15.8	-0.91	13.6	15.8	-2.18
Timofey Mozgov	48	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	7	-19	16.6	13.8	2.83	15.5	13.3	2.20
Kenneth Faried	45	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	6	-17	14.7	15.6	-0.91	14.0	14.7	-0.77
Randy Foye	84	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	14.7	18.2	-3.44	14.2	15.2	-1.01
Aaron Brooks	58	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	11	-27	16.6	13.0	3.60	14.3	14.4	-0.14
Wilson Chandler	51	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.13	-23	18	-41	16.3	14.0	2.28	14.4	14.3	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, DET 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.23,0.15,0.06,0,0	94.8%
MIL 82, TOR 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.36,0.15,0.04,0	94.2%
WAS 98, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	93.9%