NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	91		Excitement	4.9 [872]		MVP	Al Horford (BOS): +12.8%
Detroit Pistons	81		Comeback	1.4 [730]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -12.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.00	15	56%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	11	48%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	12	55%	0.01	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Shane Larkin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Daniel Theis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.03	10	46%	0.04	5	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	9	83%	0.10	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	13	39%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.02
Eric Moreland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	5	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.08	0.03	15	53%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	16	37%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	9	10%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	25.3	14.4	27.2	0.2	30.0	124.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +55.6%

DET -4.6%

BOS +2.9%

DET -7.4%

BOS +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	17.2	14.8	14.7	101.1	90.0	107.5
season	15.1	14.9		106.4	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.7		106.3	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.6	15.2	16.1	20.2	17.2
DET	15.9	16.8	12.7	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Brown	59	59	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.07	16	-6	22	15.5	20.4	-4.93	14.6	15.2	-0.63
Kyrie Irving	63	61	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.09	13	-3	16	17.9	15.4	2.49	15.3	13.8	1.55
Aron Baynes	50	53	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.08	13	-3	16	16.6	17.9	-1.28	14.9	14.7	0.23
Jayson Tatum	57	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-2	14	16.5	18.4	-1.90	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Al Horford	65	62	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	3	4	17.3	16.9	0.43	14.1	16.4	-2.30
Marcus Smart	46	45	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.01	11	-1	12	18.0	16.3	1.70	15.4	14.2	1.13
Semi Ojeleye	24	25	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	5	0	17.7	17.0	0.77	14.8	14.8	-0.07
Shane Larkin	23	25	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.15	-6	16	-22	17.2	17.2	-0.02	14.5	14.9	-0.46
Daniel Theis	22	22	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.17	-8	18	-26	17.3	17.2	0.11	15.5	14.6	0.97
Terry Rozier	41	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.23	-13	23	-36	18.7	16.0	2.70	14.7	14.9	-0.26

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	51	52	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.34	12	-22	34	14.2	15.6	-1.42	18.7	15.2	3.47
Langston Galloway	12	12	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-11	12	11.0	15.4	-4.40	14.0	17.7	-3.68
Eric Moreland	23	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-12	14	13.9	15.1	-1.21	14.8	18.1	-3.25
Reggie Bullock	12	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-14	18	13.9	14.9	-1.03	20.8	16.6	4.21
Boban Marjanovic	10	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-12	14	16.4	14.6	1.79	19.4	16.9	2.51
Luke Kennard	45	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-15	20	14.6	15.1	-0.51	17.6	16.8	0.81
Anthony Tolliver	42	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	-3	-4	14.9	14.7	0.18	16.9	17.4	-0.48
Stanley Johnson	30	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	15.0	14.7	0.23	16.4	17.6	-1.18
Tobias Harris	71	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-6	2	15.2	13.4	1.83	16.8	18.7	-1.90
Andre Drummond	57	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	4	-18	14.9	14.7	0.23	17.9	16.1	1.82
Reggie Jackson	39	38	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.13	-22	12	-34	15.6	14.2	1.42	15.2	18.7	-3.47
Avery Bradley	58	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.04	-20	10	-30	15.4	13.8	1.55	17.8	15.9	1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.23,0.15,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 98, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	95.7%
POR 100, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.02,0	94.8%
LAC 94, PHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%