NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	4.4 [932]		MVP	Terrence Ross (TOR): +14.6%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	1.3 [1153]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): -12.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
E'Twaun Moore	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.01	-0.06	15	50%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tobias Harris	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.20	-0.01	0.12	15	74%	0.07	0	0.00	8	87%	-0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doron Lamb	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Nicholson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	0.01	13	41%	-0.05	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	12	39%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	11	70%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.03	0.04	13	76%	0.22	7	-0.12	11	91%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.02	-0.06	17	60%	0.14	5	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	2	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.02
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	2	64%	0.06	6	-0.13	7	71%	-0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.4	30.2	18.5	30.1	2.5	36.5	144.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +52.2%

TOR +20.0%

TOR +11.6%

ORL -32.3%

ORL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.8	14.8	15.1	95.7	111.7	105.2
season	15.3	15.9		100.4	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.0		104.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	16.3	15.4	16.7	15.8
TOR	16.3	15.0	12.8	15.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	26	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-18	21	16.7	15.5	1.17	15.1	14.7	0.40
E'Twaun Moore	55	53	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-13	11	16.1	15.3	0.81	14.9	14.7	0.26
Kyle O'Quinn	47	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-11	7	14.8	16.8	-1.96	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Doron Lamb	31	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-13	11	15.5	15.9	-0.39	15.3	14.6	0.74
Jameer Nelson	64	64	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-13	11	16.2	15.0	1.24	14.5	15.4	-0.89
Nikola Vucevic	58	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-2	-11	16.1	15.4	0.64	14.9	14.7	0.17
Maurice Harkless	55	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.12	-19	4	-23	15.9	15.7	0.24	14.3	15.5	-1.21
Tobias Harris	65	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.05	-14	-1	-13	15.7	16.0	-0.28	15.3	13.6	1.74
Victor Oladipo	69	70	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	0.01	-22	7	-29	15.4	16.8	-1.41	14.7	15.2	-0.51

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	74	73	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.09	25	-10	35	14.2	17.0	-2.82	15.6	16.5	-0.92
Terrence Ross	58	58	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.05	12	3	9	14.9	14.6	0.31	15.3	16.7	-1.44
Amir Johnson	47	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	1	13	14.5	15.1	-0.60	15.7	15.9	-0.21
Jonas Valanciunas	55	55	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	4	7	15.2	14.3	0.98	15.4	16.4	-1.03
DeMar DeRozan	62	62	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.08	6	9	-3	15.2	14.1	1.16	16.1	15.2	0.89
John Salmons	30	32	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	7	1	14.2	15.1	-0.93	15.5	16.0	-0.52
Patrick Patterson	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.03	6	9	-3	14.0	15.4	-1.39	16.3	15.5	0.81
Tyler Hansbrough	34	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	15	-15	14.9	14.8	0.17	16.1	15.6	0.53
Charles Hayes	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	16	-17	16.6	14.6	2.05	15.6	15.8	-0.19
Greivis Vasquez	50	48	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	15.0	14.6	0.45	16.3	15.3	0.94
Nando De Colo	8	9	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	19	-23	17.5	14.6	2.92	17.7	15.6	2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 79, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.8%
NJN 74, PHX 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
MIA 68, DET 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%