NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	68		Excitement	4.3 [943]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): +12.3%
Detroit Pistons	79		Comeback	1.5 [1138]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -22.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ken Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.06	4	87%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.05	-0.07	0.06	11	68%	0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	12	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Vladimir Stepania	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	9	57%	-0.01	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Malik Allen	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	11	18%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.04	0.05	15	70%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	4	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.06	10	45%	-0.02	4	-0.07	9	33%	-0.07
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.05	-0.00	11	35%	-0.08	5	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	26.2	15.7	22.2	2.4	24.6	120.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +36.7%

MIA -5.3%

MIA -4.3%

DET +23.7%

MIA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	17.7	16.2	15.5	79.1	94.0	101.6
season	16.3	16.8		94.6	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.9		97.8	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.8	18.7	15.6	17.5	17.7
DET	14.6	15.4	17.1	17.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ken Johnson	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-18	25	11.7	17.9	-6.20	24.0	15.9	8.07
Eddie House	19	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-16	21	18.1	17.5	0.52	14.6	16.7	-2.13
LaPhonso Ellis	16	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-9	7	19.3	17.3	2.04	14.2	16.7	-2.43
Vladimir Stepania	42	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-15	19	17.8	17.5	0.31	16.0	16.4	-0.38
Mike James	27	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-15	19	16.8	18.0	-1.22	16.4	16.1	0.21
Rasual Butler	22	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-12	13	16.4	18.1	-1.73	18.4	15.3	3.02
Brian Grant	58	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	2	-15	18.1	16.8	1.23	16.3	16.0	0.38
Travis Best	59	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	4	-19	18.0	16.8	1.22	16.1	16.4	-0.21
Caron Butler	62	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	4	-19	17.9	17.0	0.85	15.2	18.5	-3.25
Malik Allen	60	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	4	-19	17.1	19.0	-1.88	16.4	15.9	0.48
Eddie Jones	62	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.01	-16	5	-21	17.7	17.6	0.09	16.9	14.7	2.26

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	72	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.04	18	-7	25	16.3	15.8	0.44	17.4	18.8	-1.41
Ben Wallace	76	77	0.45	0.06	0.39	-0.02	16	-5	21	16.0	18.4	-2.39	17.6	18.1	-0.51
Michael Curry	36	38	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	4	3	16.9	15.7	1.18	17.7	17.6	0.06
Clifford Robinson	61	60	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.12	14	-3	17	15.2	18.8	-3.60	18.4	15.9	2.53
Richard Hamilton	42	46	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	5	1	16.4	16.0	0.33	17.7	17.6	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	25	29	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	5	1	17.4	15.7	1.75	17.4	17.8	-0.31
Jon Barry	48	48	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.02	8	3	5	15.8	16.7	-0.89	17.5	17.8	-0.34
Corliss Williamson	42	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	10	-9	15.9	16.5	-0.62	17.8	17.5	0.28
Hubert Davis	12	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.21	-7	18	-25	15.8	16.3	-0.44	18.8	17.4	1.41
Mehmet Okur	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	18	-25	24.0	15.9	8.07	11.7	17.9	-6.20
Tayshaun Prince	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	18	-25	24.0	15.9	8.07	11.7	17.9	-6.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 82, LAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.7,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
CHA 85, LAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
ORL 90, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%