NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	101		Excitement	6.1 [601]		MVP	David Lee (GSW): +9.2%
Sacramento Kings	92		Comeback	1.3 [848]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -23.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	20	52%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	8	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	14	55%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	11	57%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jordan Crawford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	5	58%	0.03	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	60%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	11	69%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	17	63%	0.18	7	-0.20	7	86%	0.02
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ray McCallum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	7	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.18	-0.05	0.00	21	33%	-0.16	4	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	3.2	32.5	15.8	25.0	2.4	31.5	139.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +31.9%

SAC -3.1%

SAC -17.5%

GSW +38.5%

GSW +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	13.2	17.3	15.1	106.3	97.9	105.2
season	14.2	15.4		105.9	104.5
opponent	14.7	15.3		107.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.6	12.9	13.9	15.7	13.2
SAC	17.8	17.7	17.4	16.3	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Klay Thompson	74	74	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.28	18	-9	27	13.6	11.9	1.70	17.8	15.7	2.06
Stephen Curry	69	68	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-3	15	13.6	12.2	1.41	17.7	16.2	1.56
Draymond Green	59	58	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.19	12	-3	15	13.1	13.4	-0.29	15.5	20.2	-4.75
Andre Iguodala	69	69	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	3	3	13.6	12.2	1.41	17.9	15.8	2.02
David Lee	78	77	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.16	3	6	-3	13.8	10.4	3.44	17.2	18.0	-0.83
Harrison Barnes	56	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	4	1	11.7	15.2	-3.48	17.2	17.5	-0.26
Marreese Speights	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	7	-5	10.5	13.5	-3.08	18.1	17.2	0.87
Jermaine O'Neal	30	30	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	14	-19	13.4	13.1	0.32	19.6	16.3	3.30
Jordan Crawford	29	27	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.03	-8	17	-25	12.5	13.5	-0.95	15.4	18.1	-2.68

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Acy	53	54	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.20	8	-17	25	17.2	17.5	-0.30	12.2	14.4	-2.22
Jason Thompson	53	54	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-13	17	16.7	18.1	-1.42	14.1	11.9	2.25
Jimmer Fredette	10	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-5	1	13.6	17.8	-4.16	12.1	13.3	-1.21
Isaiah Thomas	82	81	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-12	15	17.7	14.7	2.95	13.5	11.4	2.05
Derrick Williams	37	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-2	-5	16.6	17.8	-1.11	11.6	14.2	-2.58
Ben McLemore	36	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-1	-7	16.6	17.7	-1.10	14.8	12.2	2.63
Carl Landry	44	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	4	-17	17.8	16.9	0.90	12.2	14.0	-1.86
Travis Outlaw	64	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-8	7	17.0	18.1	-1.15	13.6	12.4	1.19
Ray McCallum	21	22	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	1	-11	20.8	16.3	4.49	12.8	13.3	-0.53
Rudy Gay	70	71	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.21	-17	8	-25	17.7	16.3	1.38	13.4	12.6	0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.29,0.38,0.31,0.23,0.36,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 103, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.22,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.17,0.09,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%
MIA 86, NYK 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.43,0.37,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.05,0	92.7%
SAS 103, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.6%