NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	103		Excitement	4.0 [1023]		MVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): +8.6%
Washington Wizards	93		Comeback	1.6 [480]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (WAS): -12.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	8	87%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	8	70%	0.11	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	19	55%	0.13	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	67%	0.06	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
John Salmons	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	13	48%	0.07	3	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	11	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.04
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.04	-0.10	19	52%	0.08	5	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	5	64%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	17	44%	-0.04	2	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	10	37%	-0.05	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.02	8	33%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.8	27.0	15.0	27.0	1.8	36.4	130.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +50.1%

TOR +4.0%

WAS -18.9%

TOR +13.9%

TOR +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.1	115.7	103.3	105.2
season	15.9	15.1		107.2	103.8
opponent	15.5	15.1		102.7	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.4	17.7	16.0	18.6	16.9
WAS	14.6	16.6	16.8	13.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	1	8	17.1	15.9	1.12	15.7	13.4	2.35
Amir Johnson	47	48	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	1	8	16.6	17.2	-0.68	15.0	15.7	-0.67
Kyle Lowry	67	68	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.26	3	7	-4	16.7	17.5	-0.89	14.2	18.8	-4.58
Tyler Hansbrough	32	31	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.10	14	-4	18	16.1	17.3	-1.17	17.0	14.4	2.58
John Salmons	48	49	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.11	14	-4	18	16.1	17.8	-1.63	15.8	14.7	1.11
Greivis Vasquez	46	48	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.00	9	1	8	17.5	16.2	1.38	15.5	15.1	0.36
Patrick Patterson	63	64	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.26	-2	12	-14	17.1	16.4	0.69	15.2	15.5	-0.27
Terrence Ross	34	34	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	11	-12	17.4	16.6	0.77	15.3	15.3	-0.07
Steve Novak	0	1	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	8	-6	0.0	16.9	-16.88	19.0	15.3	3.73
Jonas Valanciunas	33	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.24	-7	17	-24	17.4	16.6	0.82	14.6	15.7	-1.07

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	64	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-14	18	14.5	17.4	-2.97	17.3	15.8	1.56
Garrett Temple	19	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.17	-12	2	-14	17.4	14.7	2.67	16.4	17.0	-0.61
Kevin Seraphin	24	22	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	0.20	-14	4	-18	18.8	14.0	4.80	16.4	17.0	-0.68
Bradley Beal	68	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-12	14	15.6	14.4	1.25	17.4	15.2	2.25
Marcin Gortat	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.28	0	-10	10	14.7	16.5	-1.84	16.8	17.0	-0.19
Trevor Booker	26	26	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	4	-18	17.4	14.5	2.97	15.8	17.3	-1.56
John Wall	74	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-8	6	14.6	18.7	-4.11	17.1	15.7	1.45
Trevor Ariza	72	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-11	12	14.2	19.9	-5.79	16.9	16.9	-0.08
Martell Webster	45	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	5	-20	16.0	14.6	1.33	16.2	17.6	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
DEN 111, BKN 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
DET 94, DAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%