NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	9.7 [87]		MVP	Jeremy Lamb (OKC): +36.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	95		Comeback	3.8 [281]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -65.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lamb	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.36,0.36	0.11	0.25	-0.00	11	83%	0.41	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.01	19	42%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Perry Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	11	32%	-0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.55	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.55	-0.01	-0.53	0.01	28	59%	-0.08	8	-0.47	5	100%	0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.15	0.09	-0.00	8	86%	0.34	1	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.02	9	77%	0.23	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.08	-0.02	12	58%	0.08	5	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	10	39%	-0.08	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.04
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.38	-0.38	-0.02	-0.36	0.00	15	44%	-0.15	1	-0.23	6	83%	0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.36,-0.65	-0.65	-0.23	-0.46	-0.03	22	26%	-0.56	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	29.2	14.8	27.2	2.4	39.5	140.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +89.2%

POR -33.4%

POR -13.3%

OKC +7.4%

OKC +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	POR	NBA	OKC	POR	NBA
this game	14.8	15.7	15.1	104.3	100.0	105.2
season	14.4	15.1		107.8	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.4		106.5	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.8	14.8	14.8	14.6	14.8
POR	15.2	15.2	17.9	14.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	62	65	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.52	8	-5	13	15.2	13.8	1.43	16.2	14.6	1.58
Kevin Durant	75	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.48	2	1	1	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.4	16.9	-1.54
Kendrick Perkins	54	52	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.80	-12	15	-27	15.0	14.5	0.49	15.1	16.5	-1.41
Jeremy Lamb	59	59	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	-3	9	14.9	14.5	0.43	16.1	15.1	1.02
Reggie Jackson	63	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.45	-5	8	-13	15.8	12.7	3.10	15.9	15.4	0.45
Perry Jones	10	11	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	2	-1	12.2	15.1	-2.86	14.3	15.9	-1.63
Thabo Sefolosha	44	44	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	6	-9	15.2	14.3	0.89	16.1	15.4	0.70
Nick Collison	45	45	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	-2	7	14.4	15.0	-0.60	15.9	15.6	0.29
Derek Fisher	31	34	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.23	8	-5	13	12.7	15.8	-3.10	15.3	15.9	-0.61
Steven Adams	27	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.16	5	-2	7	13.7	15.2	-1.42	15.6	15.7	-0.12

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	20	21	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.32	-8	5	-13	17.9	15.1	2.83	14.9	14.7	0.19
Joel Freeland	5	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	0	-3	18.4	15.6	2.83	14.7	14.8	-0.01
Thomas Robinson	13	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	1	-5	17.6	15.4	2.20	14.8	14.8	0.02
Meyers Leonard	27	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.12	-10	7	-17	15.3	15.9	-0.64	14.4	14.9	-0.44
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-8	13	15.5	16.4	-0.84	15.0	13.8	1.22
Robin Lopez	70	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.46	6	-9	15	15.8	15.4	0.43	15.0	14.1	0.87
CJ McCollum	55	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	1	-5	15.3	16.3	-1.05	13.9	15.9	-2.08
Nicolas Batum	74	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-6	9	15.7	15.9	-0.18	15.0	13.8	1.22
Damian Lillard	76	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.53	5	-8	13	15.1	18.3	-3.18	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Wesley Matthews	62	63	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.59	-5	2	-7	15.9	15.4	0.54	14.8	14.7	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.63,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.36,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 92, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.16,0	91.0%
DEN 87, VAN 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.57,0.42,0	90.8%
UTA 91, NJN 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.68,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.75,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.33,0.1,0	90.3%